Public Agenda Online: On Thin Ice

Americans may — after they learn more about the idea — be open to vouchers, but they tend to see them as a limited solution (and a relatively modest one at that). Few see school vouchers as an ultimate lifeline for American families; nor do they fear them as the death knell of public education. Most people believe vouchers would benefit some students, but they also see possible drawbacks. After careful explanation, most seem positively disposed to the idea — particularly if other communities have served as guinea pigs — yet people generally see them as a partial solution at best.

Statistics are a tricky business in any endeavor, and survey analysis is no exception. None of the pro or con arguments resonated strongly with a majority of the public, but if one were to add the "somewhat likely" responses to the "very likely" responses, then one could say a substantial majority of the public agrees with almost all of these arguments. But either the private schools will lack the space to take in all comers or more private schools will open up to accommodate them — both cannot be true at the same time. The real answer is that at this point the public is far from ready or equipped to make conjectures about the future impact of a hypothetical proposal to which people have given little thought. The focus groups are again instructive: it was rare for participants themselves to introduce these arguments, and when the moderator brought them up, it often took work to explain them.

Perhaps the most telling way to measure whether people are truly attracted to a program is to ask them directly if they'd like to see it in their own backyard. Ask people if drug rehabilitation is a good idea and you may get little quarrel; ask them how they would feel about having a rehab center on their block and the answer may be quite different. Here, the plurality prefers a sympathetic wait-and-see approach — 43% say, "I would want a school voucher program in my area only if it first shows good results in other communities." To a public ultimately most concerned with outcomes rather than ideology, results will matter: 6 in 10 survey respondents who opposed vouchers say they would view them more positively if the kids using them were doing better and public schools improved. Success might kindle greater public enthusiasm — and failure might undercut it.

For More Survey Details