Public Optimism Growing in War on Terror
Updated Dec. 17, 2001
As the U.S. and its allies attack al Qaeda forces in Afghanistan, public opinion surveys find greater confidence in the public. More people say the U.S. is winning the war on terrorism, fewer say they personally fear terrorist attacks, and there are even signs of greater optimism on the economy.
No surveys have been issued since the U.S. released a captured videotape showing al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden bragging about the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. But from the beginning, polls have shown the American people consider destroying al Qaeda and killing or capturing bin Laden personally to be critical war aims. If given the choice between taking bin Laden dead or alive, a majority says the U.S. would be better off with him dead. But if he is captured, most would want him tried, and a plurality would prefer an international court to a military tribunal.
Bin Laden and Military Tribunals
One of the most controversial strategies to fight terrorism has been President Bush's order permitting non-citizens accused of terrorism to be tried by special military tribunals, which could be closed to the public and offer defendants fewer rights than in a criminal court or court-martial. The primary candidates for such a trial, of course, are bin Laden and members of his al Qaeda network, who are still being pursued by the U.S. military in Afghanistan.
In a survey on Nov. 27, the ABC News/Washington Post poll found 59 percent who think foreign terrorist suspects should face military tribunals, compared to 37 percent who said they should be tried in a conventional criminal court. A more detailed question giving arguments for tribunals (protecting ongoing probes and that civilian jurors might be afraid to convict) and against (closed proceedings that singled out non-citizens) also showed virtually the same results.
When it comes to the fate of bin Laden himself, however, the public does not completely reject the idea of a civilian or international trial. President Bush has said the U.S. wants bin Laden "dead or alive," and a Gallup survey on Nov. 26-27 found 54 percent who said it would be better for the U.S. if he was killed.
If bin Laden is taken alive, however, 62 percent told Gallup they want to see him put on trial, compared to 35 percent who would execute him immediately. And if he is tried, 41 percent said he should face an international court with judges from different countries, compared to 29 percent for a secret military tribunal and 17 percent for a regular civilian court.
A Newsweek survey on Dec. 6-7 found the public divided on what to do with John Walker, the American citizen captured while fighting with the Taliban. Forty-one percent say he should be tried for treason, but 40 percent say he should only be charged if he committed specific crimes during the fighting. Some 16 percent admit they don't know what to do with Walker, which is a relatively high level of undecided responses.
For many Americans, getting hold of bin Laden himself is a key war aim. Seventy-three percent told Fox News that getting bin Laden personally was a "very important" goal, and 64 percent told the ABC/Washington Post poll earlier this month that the U.S. must capture or kill him for the war to be a success. Three-quarters of the public told Los Angeles Times researchers that they had "some" or "a lot" of confidence the military would be able to do that.
But when asked to choose in a late-November CBS/New York Times survey, 57 percent said the main U.S. goal should be eliminating all terrorists in Afghanistan, compared with 15 percent for overthrowing the Taliban and 13 percent for removing bin Laden personally.
Immigration and Civil Liberties
Attorney General John Ashcroft and the Justice Department are coming in for stiff criticism from Congress and civil liberties groups over some of the actions taken to pursue terrorists. So far, surveys show most Americans support the crackdown, but the public does not dismiss concerns about fairness and civil liberties. Nearly half of those surveyed (49 percent) told the CBS/New York Times survey that they don't know enough to tell whether the Bush administration proposals go too far or not.
From the very first surveys after the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, most Americans told pollsters that the country would have to give up some rights to fight terrorism (79 percent in a CBS/New York Times poll in September). A Gallup survey conducted Nov. 26-27 found six in 10 Americans who said the Bush administration has been "about right" in its limits on civil liberties, as opposed to 10 percent who said the administration had gone too far and 26 percent who think it hasn't gone far enough.
The ABC News/Washington Post survey conducted Nov. 27 found strong majorities who believed the administration was "doing enough" to protect the rights of average Americans (81 percent) Arab-Americans and Muslims (73 percent), those under investigation for involvement in terrorism (71 percent) and non-citizens from Arab and Muslim countries (69 percent).
The same survey also found substantial support for many of the administration's specific actions, 79 percent who supported the mass interviews with Middle Eastern immigrants and 73 percent who agreed with wiretapping conversations between terrorism suspects and their lawyers.
Public Agenda has found in the past that the public supports civil liberties in the abstract, but often hasn't spent much time thinking about the tradeoffs and precedents that might be set. (See our Red Flags on Internet Free Speech and Privacy). Also, personal experience is always a potent factor in public attitudes, and few Americans have ever lived under the restrictions that worry civil libertarians.
The public also has a long history of trusting the police more than the criminal justice system, and valuing being tough on criminals over the rights of the accused. There are important racial differences in those attitudes, however, and the ABC/Washington Post survey did find that minorities are less likely to be supportive of restrictions.
But surveys also find that when asked what should be done to prevent terrorism, the public's strongest instincts are for measures such as metal detectors in public buildings and tighter airport security. Only a third want increased electronic eavesdropping and even fewer support random searches by police.
The way survey questions are worded seems to make a difference in the response -- usually a warning sign that public attitudes can change depending on events or as people learn more about an issue. When CBS/Times researchers simply asked whether it's a good or bad idea to allow the government to listen in on conversations between suspected terrorists in jail and their lawyers, 72 percent thought it was a good idea. But when researchers rephrased the question to add that attorney-client conversations have always been private, only 30 percent said it was a good idea.
The ABC/Washington Post poll also found 86 percent who said the government was justified in detaining immigrants who had overstayed their visas or otherwise violated immigration laws. Those alleged violations may provide important context to public attitudes about the detainees. Historically, the public has mixed views on immigration, but usually makes a clear distinction between legal and illegal immigrants - with a far tougher stance on illegal immigrants. (See our Red Flags on Immigration).
There is evidence of a spike in opposition to immigration since Sept. 11, with 58 percent of the public telling Gallup researchers last month that immigration should be decreased - a 20 point change since a year ago. Fox found 65 percent willing to temporarily stop all immigration as an anti-terrorist measure. This could be a short-term reaction, since support for immigration had generally been increasing since 1995, or it could signal the beginning of a long-term reconsideration.
The War in Afghanistan - and Iraq?
Support for military action has been consistently high since the Sept. 11 attacks, and there's been little in the past month that would cause it to fall. The war in Afghanistan has progressed with remarkable speed, with Taliban forces giving up most major cities to the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance. While U.S. ground forces are now deployed in strength in Afghanistan, so far casualties have been light.
Public support for military action has been high and unwavering since the Sept. 11 attacks, when the first surveys found that nine in 10 Americans backed military action against those responsible. This support has been consistent since then in all surveys, regardless of events. The latest Gallup poll, taken Dec. 6-9, found 88 percent in support of the war and 64 percent who said the U.S. is winning -- the highest level since Sept. 11.
Another consistent theme has been that potential drawbacks to military action don't deter the public. From the beginning, two-thirds or more of the public has been in favor of military action even in the event of a lengthy conflict, a recession or further terror attacks. The Los Angeles Times survey on Nov. 10-13 found 73 percent who supported the war even if there were a "substantial number" of U.S. casualties. However, for most people that support isn't open-ended. A Gallup survey in early November found 53 percent would continue with the war "regardless of how many …service people are killed"; but 41 percent would not. Of that 41 percent, about half said 1,000 casualties or less should be the limit. A CBS/New York Times survey in late October found 61 percent who said the war would be "worth the cost" if several thousand troops were killed.
With success in the field, much of the debate has turned to how to rebuild a stable government in Afghanistan and whether to pursue other nations that may sponsor terrorism or provide potential al Qaeda havens, such as Iraq.
Most of the public supports using U.S. troops as peacekeepers in Afghanistan (78 percent in a late-November Gallup poll, 73 percent in the ABC/Washington Post poll). In addition, 71 percent told ABC the U.S. should take a "leading" or "large" role in sending food and economic aid to Afghanistan, and 64 percent said the U.S. should help establish a new government there.
Nearly three-quarters told Gallup that they would support sending troops back to the Persian Gulf to remove Saddam Hussein. Then again, many Americans have always said the U.S. should have removed Hussein during the Gulf War, ranging from 70 percent in 1993 to 52 percent last February.
The Home Front, Air Travel and Bioterrorism
Overall fear of terrorism seems to be dropping in surveys, as more time passes without a new attack. Only 24 percent told the CBS/New York Times survey on Dec. 6-7 that they are concerned about a terrorist attack where they live (compared to 43 percent in an overnight poll on Sept. 11).
Overall, the government has been getting lower marks for its handling of terrorism at home than for the war in Afghanistan. Newsweek found last month that while three-quarters of the public believes the Bush administration has "a well-thought-out plan" to use military force overseas, only 48 percent said the same thing about plans to fight bioterrorism at home. Yet majorities express at least some confidence that the government can handle the threat - 62 percent in the latest Gallup survey.
Numerous surveys have found only very small numbers of Americans ever sought out antibiotics in fear of bioterrorism. Shortly after the first anthrax cases were reported, the ABC News/Washington Post poll found 5 percent had spoken to a doctor about anthrax and 2 percent said they had actually bought antibiotics. Still, with the Postal Service advising caution in opening mail, 31 percent told Newsweek on Oct. 25-26 that they'd actually thrown out mail they didn't recognize.
Despite the intensive media coverage, surveys are contradictory on whether the public is getting the information it needs. Newsweek found only 43 percent saying the government was giving people the reliable information they need, compared with 71 percent a week earlier. But of the remainder of that survey, 30 percent thought government information was lacking "because they don't really know themselves" while 23 percent thought the government was trying to avoid "overreaction and panic." An Associated Press survey on Nov. 9-13 found 26 percent who still believe anthrax is contagious (it isn't). The AP poll also found that 53 percent are at least somewhat worried over the so-far theoretical threat of smallpox. Six in 10 would get a smallpox vaccination if offered.
Greater unease with flying has been seen both in surveys and in actual travel bookings since Sept. 11. In surveys, the public has said tighter security would be a major deterrent to terrorism, and many don't think they've seen it happen yet.
In Newsweek's survey just after the Sept. 11 attacks, when asked what would be "very effective" in preventing similar terrorist attacks, the public rated "more security at airports" (76 percent) and in-flight precautions like air marshals and locked cockpit doors (75 percent) ahead of military strikes (49 percent) and killing suspected terrorist leaders (44 percent). In late October, however, the CBS/New York Times poll found 51 percent who believed the airlines hadn't done enough to improve airport security, and 42 percent who thought the federal government hadn't done enough.
The Economy
There have been some recent signs of greater public optimism on the economy. The latest Gallup poll showed 44 percent of the public saying the economy is getting better, an increase of 14 points from a poll in early November. But 48 percent still told Gallup that the economy is getting worse. Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of Americans say that the country is in a recession, according to a Nov. 10-13 Los Angeles Times survey.
Public attitudes were becoming more pessimistic about the economy even before Sept. 11, and afterwards most Americans said they were at least somewhat worried the terrorist attacks will hurt the economy. And those findings were before unemployment figures were released that showed the largest one-month jump in joblessness for two decades. Surveys consistently show that for most people, the unemployment and inflation rates are the most important measures of the economy's health. Significantly, 54 percent told Gallup they personally knew someone who had lost their job.
Congress has been sharply divided on how to stimulate the economy. In early October, Gallup found the public thought most of the suggestions had merit, including extending unemployment benefits (94 percent in favor), passing new tax cuts for low- and moderate-income workers (86 percent), increased government spending for job training and construction (75 percent), and new tax cuts for business (61 percent).
In this case, there is some contradictory data about what approach the public would pick if forced to choose. On Nov. 2-4, Gallup found that 32 percent said the economic package should have tax cuts, but 56 percent would prefer increased government spending on unemployment benefits and construction projects. A Fox News poll two weeks later found the opposite: 54 percent said cutting taxes would be "more likely" to stimulate the economy compared with 22 percent favoring increased government spending.
The View of Islam Abroad. . .
One issue that does concern Americans is the possibility that the "war on terrorism" will broaden, pitting Islamic and Arab nations against the U.S. and its allies. Sixty-six percent of Americans told the ABC/Washington Post poll in October that they're worried "somewhat" or "a great deal" that will happen. Both domestic and international critics argue that U.S. policies, such as support for Israel and sanctions against Iraq, helped spur extremism in the Middle East, and there have been protests in many Islamic nations against the Afghanistan campaign.
Some 55 percent of Americans told the ABC/Washington Post poll they believed most Arabs and Muslims had a negative view of the U.S., and cited support for Israel (68 percent), the spread of Western culture (64 percent), and the presence of U.S. forces in the Mideast (63 percent) as the reasons. Nearly half (48 percent) told Newsweek in early December that U.S. support for "friendly but dictatorial" regimes played a role in increasing support for Islamic militants. But more than one-fifth (22 percent) said they didn't know.
Yet Americans don't necessarily want to change those policies: only 29 percent told Newsweek in October that "the U.S. should reduce its ties to Israel in order to lessen the acts of terrorism against us." The public was divided when Newsweek asked if the U.S. should pressure Middle Eastern countries toward democracy, "even if it means Islamic extremists might win power." Again, 48 percent said yes, but 40 percent said no.
. . . and The View of Islam at Home
There have been reports of hate crimes around the country against Arabs, Muslims and other ethnic groups who might be mistaken for them, such as Sikhs and Hindus. Survey results over many years indicate that most Americans believe in tolerance, but at the moment are still wrestling with deep fear and frustration.
In two recent Public Agenda surveys, one on religion and public life and another on the values parents want to teach their children, we found Americans voiced a firm belief in religious and social tolerance. Most parents, for example, consider intolerance the mark of a bad citizen. Yet we also found that only 7 percent of Americans say they understand Islam well - perhaps not surprising since Muslims only make up 2 percent of the U.S. population.
Surveys have shown tolerance bending under the emotional strain of the past several months. About 35 percent of those surveyed the week of Sept. 11 said they had less trust in Arab-Americans since the attack. Several questions show the public's fear and frustration right after the trade center attack, with 58 percent saying Arabs should undergo special security checks before boarding planes and 49 percent saying they should carry special identification. The CBS/New York Times survey found the numbers who think Arab Americans are "more sympathetic" to terrorists may actually have increased by early December, from 28 percent on Sept. 13-14 to 33 percent by Dec. 7-10. The later survey was taken in the aftermath of a series of suicide bombings in Israel, which may have affected public attitudes.
In a Zogby International poll of Arab-Americans in early October, 20 percent said they personally had experienced discrimination since Sept. 11, and 45 percent said they knew someone else who had faced discrimination.
Trust in Government
Not surprisingly, the approval ratings for President Bush continue to be high in all surveys. Americans consistently join ranks behind their leaders in the initial stages of a crisis. More surprising are survey results about trust in government in general, which fell during the years of Vietnam and Watergate and never recovered, regardless of how popular a particular president happened to be. In late September, the ABC News/Washington Post survey found 64 percent said they trust the government to do the right thing "most of the time" or "just about always," the highest rating since the 1960s. While this high trust level almost certainly reflects the sense of unity in the country, it would still be unique and should be watched carefully. Even during the Gulf War, when approval ratings for both the war and for President Bush's father were at high levels, the trust in government rating never exceeded 45 percent.
When asked specifically about anthrax, however, the approval ratings are weaker. As mentioned above, about half say the Bush administration has done a good job handling anthrax compared with 43 percent "good" and 35 percent "fair" for Congress.
Read previous editions of our running analysis of public reaction to the attacks.
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