Public Supports Domestic Crackdown on Terror
Updated Nov. 30, 2001
Public opinion surveys find strong majorities say they support most of the Bush administration's actions in the "war on terrorism," and six in 10 Americans support the idea of special military tribunals for non-citizens accused of terrorism. As far as al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden goes, if given the choice between taking him dead or alive, a majority says the U.S. would be better off with him dead. But if he is captured, most would want him tried, and a plurality would prefer an international court to a military tribunal.
With U.S troops committed in force to Afghanistan, public backing for the war continues to be high, and the number who say they're "very satisfied" with the progress of the war has doubled since early November. The vast majority say they're still braced for a long and difficult struggle, but the number who say they're personally worried about being a terrorist victim has fallen to its lowest level since Sept. 11.
Public Opinion: Bin Laden and Military Tribunals
One of the most controversial strategies to fight terrorism has been President Bush's order permitting non-citizens accused of terrorism to be tried by special military tribunals, which could be closed to the public and offer defendants fewer rights than in a criminal court or court-martial. The primary candidates for such a trial, of course, are bin Laden and members of his al Qaeda network, who are still being pursued by the U.S. military in Afghanistan.
In a survey on Nov. 27, the ABC News/Washington Post poll found 59 percent who think foreign terrorist suspects should face military tribunals, compared to 37 percent who said they should be tried in a conventional criminal court. A more detailed question giving arguments for tribunals (protecting ongoing probes and that civilian jurors might be afraid to convict) and against (closed proceedings that singled out non-citizens) got virtually the same result.
When it comes to the fate of bin Laden himself, however, the public does not completely reject the idea of a civilian or international trial. President Bush has said the U.S. wants bin Laden "dead or alive," and a Gallup survey on Nov. 26-27 found 54 percent who said it would be better for the U.S. if he was killed.
If bin Laden is taken alive, however, 62 percent told Gallup they want to see him put on trial, compared to 35 percent who would execute him immediately. And if he is tried, 41 percent said he should face an international court with judges from different countries, compared to 29 percent for a secret military tribunal and 17 percent for a regular civilian court.
For many Americans, getting hold of bin Laden himself is a key war aim. Seventy-three percent told Fox News that getting bin Laden personally was a "very important" goal, and 64 percent told the ABC/Washington Post poll earlier this month that the U.S. must capture or kill him for the war to be a success. Three-quarters of the public told Los Angeles Times researchers that they had "some" or "a lot" of confidence the military would be able to do that.
But when asked to choose in the CBS/New York Times survey, 57 percent said the main U.S. goal should be eliminating all terrorists in Afghanistan, compared with 15 percent for overthrowing the Taliban and 13 percent for removing bin Laden personally.
Public Opinion: Immigration and Civil Liberties
Attorney General John Ashcroft and the Justice Department are coming in for stiff criticism from Congress and civil liberties groups over some of the actions to pursue terrorists. The Justice Department refuses to release the names of hundreds of people suspected of terrorist connections who are being detained on immigration violations, and is asking local police to help interview 5,000 Middle Eastern men currently in the U.S. legally. So far, surveys show most Americans aren't alarmed by the crackdown.
From the very first surveys after the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, most Americans told pollsters that the country would have to give up some rights to fight terrorism (79 percent in a CBS/New York Times poll in September). A Gallup survey conducted Nov. 26-27 found six in 10 Americans who said the Bush administration has been "about right" in its limits on civil liberties, as opposed to 10 percent who said the administration had gone too far and 26 percent who think it hasn't gone far enough.
The ABC News/Washington Post survey conducted Nov. 27 found strong majorities who believed the administration was "doing enough" to protect the rights of average Americans (81 percent) Arab-Americans and Muslims (73 percent), those under investigation for involvement in terrorism (71 percent) and non-citizens from Arab and Muslim countries (69 percent).
The same survey also found substantial support for many of the administration's specific actions, 79 percent who supported the mass interviews with Middle Eastern immigrants and 73 percent who agreed with wiretapping conversations between terrorism suspects and their lawyers.
Public Agenda has found in the past that the public supports civil liberties in the abstract, but often hasn't spent much time thinking about the tradeoffs and precedents that might be set. (See our Red Flags on Internet Free Speech and Privacy). Also, personal experience is always a potent factor in public attitudes, and few Americans have ever lived under the restrictions that worry civil libertarians. The public also has a long history of trusting the police more than the criminal justice system, and valuing being tough on criminals over the rights of the accused. There are important racial differences in those attitudes, however, and the ABC/Washington Post survey did find that minorities are less likely to be supportive of restrictions.
But surveys also find that when asked what should be done to prevent terrorism, the public's strongest instincts are for measures such as metal detectors in public buildings and tighter airport security. Only a third want increased electronic eavesdropping and even fewer support random searches by police. The Harris Poll in October found more than seven in 10 Americans who had "high" or "moderate concern" that judges would authorize surveillance too easily (79 percent); there would be broad use of racial profiling (77 percent); or that non-violent government critics would be put under surveillance (71 percent).
The ABC/Washington Post poll also found 86 percent who said the government was justified in detaining immigrants who had overstayed their visas or otherwise violated immigration laws. Those alleged violations may provide important context to public attitudes about the detainees. Historically, the public has mixed views on immigration, but usually makes a clear distinction between legal and illegal immigrants — with a far tougher stance on illegal immigrants. (See our Red Flags on Immigration).
There is evidence of a spike in opposition to immigration since Sept. 11, with 58 percent of the public telling Gallup researchers last month that immigration should be decreased — a 20 point change since a year ago. Fox found 65 percent willing to temporarily stop all immigration as an anti-terrorist measure. This could be a short-term reaction, since support for immigration had generally been increasing since 1995, or it could signal the beginning of a long-term reconsideration.
Public Opinion: The War in Afghanistan - and Iraq?
Support for military action has been consistently high since the Sept. 11 attacks, and there's been little in the past month that would cause it to fall. The war in Afghanistan has progressed with remarkable speed, with Taliban forces giving up most major cities to the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance. While U.S. ground forces are now deployed in strength in Afghanistan, so far casualties have been light.
Public support for military action has been high and unwavering since the Sept. 11 attacks, when the first surveys found that nine in 10 Americans backed military action against those responsible. This support has been consistent since then in all surveys, regardless of events. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, taken Nov. 27, found 91 percent in support of the war and 93 percent who said it was going "very" or "fairly well."
Another consistent theme has been that potential drawbacks to military action don't deter the public. From the beginning, two-thirds or more of the public has been in favor of military action even in the event of a lengthy conflict, a recession, or further terror attacks. The Los Angeles Times survey on Nov. 10-13 found 73 percent who supported the war even if there were a "substantial number" of U.S. casualties. However, for most people that support isn't open-ended. A Gallup survey in early November found 53 percent would continue with the war "regardless of how many ... service people are killed"; but 41 percent would not. Of that 41 percent, about half said 1,000 casualties or less should be the limit. A CBS/New York Times survey in late October found 61 percent who said the war would be "worth the cost" if several thousand troops were killed.
With success in the field, much of the debate has turned to how to rebuild a stable government in Afghanistan and whether to pursue other nations that may sponsor terrorism or provide potential al Qaeda havens, such as Iraq.
Most of the public supports using U.S. troops as peacekeepers in Afghanistan (78 percent in this week's Gallup poll, 73 percent in the ABC/Washington Post poll). In addition, 71 percent told ABC the U.S. should take a "leading" or "large" role in sending food and economic aid to Afghanistan, and 64 percent said the U.S. should help establish a new government there.
Nearly three-quarters told Gallup that they would support sending troops back to the Persian Gulf to remove Saddam Hussein. Then again, many Americans have always said the U.S. should have removed Hussein during the Gulf War, ranging from 70 percent in 1993 to 52 percent last February.
Public Opinion: The Home Front, Air Travel and Bioterrorism
Overall fear of terrorism seems to be dropping in surveys, as more time passes without a new attack anthrax outbreak or government warning. Thirty-five percent told Gallup this week that they were worried about being a terrorist victim, a steep drop from the high point of 59 percent as the anthrax scare began in early October.
Overall, the government has been getting lower marks for its handling of terrorism at home than for the war in Afghanistan. Newsweek found last month that while three-quarters of the public believes the Bush administration has "a well-thought-out plan" to use military force overseas, only 48 percent said the same thing about plans to fight bioterrorism at home. Yet majorities express at least some confidence that the government can handle the threat — 62 percent in the latest Gallup survey.
Numerous surveys have found only very small numbers of Americans seeking out antibiotics in fear of bioterrorism. Shortly after the first anthrax cases were reported, the ABC News/Washington Post poll found 5 percent had spoken to a doctor about anthrax and 2 percent said they had actually bought antibiotics. Still, with the Postal Service advising caution in opening mail, 31 percent told Newsweek on Oct. 25-26 that they'd actually thrown out mail they didn't recognize.
Despite the intensive media coverage, surveys are contradictory on whether the public is getting the information it needs. Newsweek found only 43 percent saying the government was giving people the reliable information they need, compared with 71 percent a week earlier. But of the remainder of that survey, 30 percent thought government information was lacking "because they don't really know themselves" while 23 percent thought the government was trying to avoid "overreaction and panic." An Associated Press survey on Nov. 9-13 found 26 percent who still believe anthrax is contagious (it isn't). The AP poll also found that 53 percent are at least somewhat worried over the so-far theoretical threat of smallpox. Six in 10 would get a smallpox vaccination if offered.
Greater unease with flying has been seen both in surveys and in actual travel bookings since Sept. 11. In surveys, the public has said tighter security would be a major deterrent to terrorism, and many don't think they've seen it happen yet.
In Newsweek's survey just after the Sept. 11 attacks, when asked what would be "very effective" in preventing similar terrorist attacks, the public rated "more security at airports" (76 percent) and in-flight precautions like air marshals and locked cockpit doors (75 percent) ahead of military strikes (49 percent) and killing suspected terrorist leaders (44 percent). In late October, however, the CBS/New York Times poll found 51 percent who believed the airlines hadn't done enough to improve airport security, and 42 percent who thought the federal government hadn't done enough.
Public Opinion: The Economy
Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of Americans now say that the country is in a recession, according to a Nov. 10-13 Los Angeles Times survey. Fifty-nine percent told Gallup that economic conditions are getting worse rather than better. Public attitudes were becoming more pessimistic about the economy even before Sept. 11, and afterwards most Americans said they were at least somewhat worried the terrorist attacks will hurt the economy. And those findings were before unemployment figures were released that showed the largest one-month jump in joblessness for two decades. Surveys consistently show that for most people, the unemployment and inflation rates are the most important measures of the economy's health. Significantly, 54 percent told Gallup they personally knew someone who had lost their job.
Congress has been sharply divided on how to stimulate the economy. In early October, Gallup found the public thought most of the suggestions had merit, including extending unemployment benefits (94 percent in favor), passing new tax cuts for low- and moderate-income workers (86 percent), increased government spending for job training and construction (75 percent), and new tax cuts for business (61 percent).
In this case, there is some contradictory data about what approach the public would pick if forced to choose. On Nov. 2-4, Gallup found that 32 percent said the economic package should have tax cuts, but 56 percent would prefer increased government spending on unemployment benefits and construction projects. A Fox News poll two weeks later found the opposite: 54 percent said cutting taxes would be "more likely" to stimulate the economy compared with 22 percent favoring increased government spending.
Public Opinion: The View of Islam Abroad. . .
One issue that does concern Americans is the possibility that the "war on terrorism" will broaden, pitting Islamic and Arab nations against the U.S. and its allies. Sixty-six percent of Americans told the ABC/Washington Post poll in October that they're worried "somewhat" or "a great deal" that will happen. Both domestic and international critics argue that U.S. policies, such as support for Israel and sanctions against Iraq, helped spur extremism in the Middle East, and there have been protests in many Islamic nations against the Afghanistan campaign.
Some 55 percent of Americans told the ABC/Washington Post poll they believed most Arabs and Muslims had a negative view of the U.S., and cited support for Israel (68 percent), the spread of Western culture (64 percent), and the presence of U.S. forces in the Mideast (63 percent) as the reasons. Yet Americans don't necessarily want to change those policies: only 29 percent told Newsweek that "the U.S. should reduce its ties to Israel in order to lessen the acts of terrorism against us." In late September, 70 percent in a Pew survey rejected the idea that the Sept. 11 attacks came about because "the U.S. has been unfair in its dealings with other countries."
Even before Sept. 11, while more Americans sympathized with the Israelis than the Palestinians, three-quarters believed the U.S. should not take a side. That distinction still holds for the public: In the ABC/Washington Post poll, 68 percent said the U.S. should continue to support Israel, but 55 percent also favored recognizing the Palestinians as an independent nation.
Public Opinion: . . . and The View of Islam at Home
There have been reports of hate crimes around the country against Arabs, Muslims and other ethnic groups who might be mistaken for them, such as Sikhs and Hindus. Survey results over many years indicate that most Americans believe in tolerance, but at the moment are still wrestling with deep fear and frustration.
In two recent Public Agenda surveys, one on religion and public life and another on the values parents want to teach their children, we found Americans voiced a firm belief in religious and social tolerance. Most parents, for example, consider intolerance the mark of a bad citizen. Yet we also found that only 7 percent of Americans say they understand Islam well — perhaps not surprising since Muslims only make up 2 percent of the U.S. population.
Surveys have shown tolerance bending under the emotional strain of the past month. About 35 percent of those surveyed the week of Sept. 11 said they had less trust in Arab-Americans since the attack. Several questions show the public's fear and frustration right after the trade center attack, with 58 percent saying Arabs should undergo special security checks before boarding planes and 49 percent saying they should carry special identification.
In a Zogby International poll of Arab-Americans in early October, 20 percent said they personally had experienced discrimination since Sept. 11, and 45 percent said they knew someone else who had faced discrimination.
The anti-Arab sentiment may well have been a temporary and hopefully short-term reaction. The CBS/New York Times survey found the numbers who admit to "negative feelings" about Arabs declined in the month after the attacks, from 24 percent in a survey conducted Sept. 20-23 to 15 percent in an overnight poll conducted Oct. 8. Overnight polls are somewhat more prone to error than those conducted over several days, but ABC News also found a slight drop of those who said they were "personally suspicious" of Arabs, from 43 percent on Sept. 13 to 38 percent on Oct. 8-9.
Public Opinion: Trust in Government
Not surprisingly, the approval ratings for President Bush continue to be high in all surveys. Americans consistently join ranks behind their leaders in the initial stages of a crisis. More surprising are survey results about trust in government in general, which fell during the years of Vietnam and Watergate and never recovered, regardless of how popular a particular president happened to be. In late September, the ABC News/Washington Post survey found 64 percent said they trust the government to do the right thing "most of the time" or "just about always," the highest rating since the 1960s. While this high trust level almost certainly reflects the sense of unity in the country, it would still be unique and should be watched carefully. Even during the Gulf War, when approval ratings for both the war and for President Bush's father were at high levels, the trust in government rating never exceeded 45 percent.
When asked specifically about anthrax, however, the approval ratings are weaker. As mentioned above, about half say the Bush administration has done a good job handling anthrax, compared with 43 percent "good" and 35 percent "fair" for Congress.
Read previous editions of our running analysis of public reaction to the attacks.
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