Support for War Remains High Amid Home Front Concern
Updated Nov. 21, 2001
Support for military action has been consistently high since the Sept. 11 attacks, and there's been little in the past week that would cause it to fall. The war in Afghanistan has progressed with remarkable speed, with Taliban forces giving up most major cities to the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance. U.S. officials say the al Qaeda terrorist network, including leader Osama bin Laden, is pressed into a smaller and smaller area.
In fact, more than two months after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, public opinion has been remarkably steady on most key questions. Americans have shown consistently high support for the military campaign, humanitarian efforts in Afghanistan and for President Bush. They're worried about more terrorist attacks, including bioterrorist attacks, but are far from panicked.
But the public gives the government better grades on offense than on defense in the war on terrorism, and arguably is more worried about defense right now. In a Fox News survey on Nov. 14-15, 45 percent of Americans said the government's top priority should be strengthening security at home, compared with 27 percent for winning the war in Afghanistan and 16 percent for stimulating the economy. There's little doubt, however, that the public's view of the economy is pessimistic: Nearly three-quarters of the public says the country is in a recession, and six in 10 say things are getting worse rather than better.
Capturing bin Laden and the War in Afghanistan: Public support for military action has been high and unwavering in polling since the Sept. 11 attacks, when the first surveys found that nine in 10 Americans backed military action against those responsible. This support has been consistent since then in all surveys, regardless of events. Just last week, the Los Angeles Times poll found 87 percent in favor of the war and Fox News found 91 percent in support.
For many Americans, getting hold of bin Laden himself is a key war aim. Seventy-three percent told Fox News that getting bin Laden personally was a "very important" goal, and 64 percent told the ABC/Washington Post poll that the U.S. must capture or kill him for the war to be a success. Three-quarters of the public told Los Angeles Times researchers that they had "some" or "a lot" of confidence the military would be able to do that.
But when asked to choose in the CBS/New York Times survey, 57 percent said the main U.S. goal should be eliminating all terrorists in Afghanistan, compared with 15 percent for overthrowing the Taliban and 13 percent for removing bin Laden personally.
Although Taliban officials say bin Laden has fled Afghanistan, the Pentagon believes he is still in the country and U.S. Special Operations troops are attempting to track him down. If captured, bin Laden could face a military tribunal rather than a civil trial, with fewer rights than a typical U.S. criminal defendant, under a controversial executive order signed by President Bush.
As of Nov. 21, there hasn't been any survey data released on the tribunal plan. But the public already accepts that bin Laden would be a hot potato. On Oct. 11-12, 83 percent told Newsweek that capturing or killing bin Laden would be effective in preventing terrorism, yet 48 percent also said that could turn him into a martyr who would inspire more terrorism.
For most Americans, the primary virtue of a military response is deterrence. Before the air campaign, the Pew Research Center found 88 percent believed military action would both deter future attacks and punish those responsible. When those people were asked to choose which goal is more important, 57 percent said deterring future attacks, vs. 22 percent for punishing the terrorists. Some 65 percent told the ABC/Washington Post survey that not taking military action would increase the risk of more terror attacks.
Surveys both before and after the air strikes began have shown that none of the potential drawbacks deters the public, with two-thirds or more of people in favor of military action even in the event of a lengthy conflict, a recession, or further terror attacks. The Los Angeles Times survey on Nov. 10-13 found 73 percent who supported the war even if there were a "substantial number" of U.S. casualties. However, for most people that support isn't open-ended. A Gallup survey in early November found 53 percent would continue with the war "regardless of how many…service people are killed"; but 41 percent would not. Of that 41 percent, about half said 1,000 casualties or less should be the limit. A CBS/New York Times survey in late October found 61 percent who said the war would be "worth the cost" if several thousand troops were killed.
The Home Front, Air Travel and Bioterrorism: The government has been getting lower marks for its handling of terrorism at home than for the war in Afghanistan. Newsweek found last month that while three-quarters of the public believes the Bush administration has "a well-thought-out plan" to use military force overseas, only 48 percent said the same thing about plans to fight bioterrorism at home.
Yet strong majorities express some confidence that the government can handle the threat. Nearly half (47 percent) rated the Bush administration's response as "good" in the late-October CBS/New York Times poll, compared with 14 percent who said "excellent," 31 percent who said "fair" and only 6 percent who rated it "poor." Nearly three-quarters say they're at least "somewhat confident" that the government will catch those responsible.
Numerous surveys over the last several weeks have found only very small numbers of Americans seeking out antibiotics in fear of bioterrorism. Shortly after the first anthrax cases were reported, the ABC News/Washington Post poll found 5 percent had spoken to a doctor about anthrax and 2 percent said they had actually bought antibiotics. Still, with the postal service advising caution in opening mail, 31 percent told Newsweek on Oct. 25-26 that they'd actually thrown out mail they didn't recognize.
Despite the intensive media coverage, surveys are contradictory on whether the public is getting the information it needs. Newsweek found only 43 percent saying the government was giving people the reliable information they need, compared with 71 percent a week earlier. But of the remainder of that survey, 30 percent thought government information was lacking "because they don't really know themselves" while 23 percent thought the government was trying to avoid "overreaction and panic." An Associated Press survey on Nov. 9-13 found 26 percent who still believe anthrax is contagious (it isn't). The AP poll also found that 53 percent are at least somewhat worried over the so-far theoretical threat of smallpox. Six in 10 would get a smallpox vaccination if offered.
People are certainly afraid of terrorism in general - in fact, a Gallup survey found for the first time that more people say they worry "frequently" about terrorism (47 percent) than about street crime. As Gallup points out, the odds of actually falling victim to street crime are still much greater. Critics have said the government's warnings of potential attacks, such as the threats to the Golden Gate Bridge and other California landmarks, are too vague to do anything but frighten people. Yet surveys show that the public would rather have vague warnings than none at all. Gallup reported that 70 percent said it's better for the government to issue warnings without details than to keep quiet.
On Monday, President Bush signed a bill that will allow the federal government to take over airport security. Greater unease with flying has been seen both in surveys and in actual travel bookings since Sept. 11. In surveys, the public has said tighter security would be a major deterrent to terrorism, and many don't think they've seen it happen yet.
In Newsweek's survey just after the Sept. 11 attacks, when asked what would be "very effective" in preventing similar terrorist attacks, the public rated "more security at airports" (76 percent) and in-flight precautions like air marshals and locked cockpit doors (75 percent) ahead of military strikes (49 percent) and killing suspected terrorist leaders (44 percent). In late October, however, the CBS/New York Times poll found 51 percent who believed the airlines hadn't done enough to improve airport security, and 42 percent who thought the federal government hadn't done enough.
The Economy: Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of Americans now say that the country is in a recession, according to a Nov. 10-13 Los Angeles Times survey. Fifty-nine percent told Gallup that economic conditions are getting worse rather than better. Public attitudes were becoming more pessimistic about the economy even before Sept. 11, and afterwards most Americans said they were at least somewhat worried the terrorist attacks will hurt the economy. And those findings were before unemployment figures were released that showed the largest one-month jump in joblessness for two decades. Surveys consistently show that for most people, the unemployment and inflation rates are the most important measures of the economy's health. Significantly, 54 percent told Gallup they personally knew someone who had lost their job.
Congress has been sharply divided on how to stimulate the economy, with Republicans backing further tax cuts and Democrats calling for additional spending measures, such as extending unemployment benefits. In early October, Gallup found the public thought most of the suggestions had merit, including extending unemployment benefits (94 percent in favor) passing new tax cuts for low- and moderate-income workers (86 percent) increased government spending for job training and construction (75 percent) and new tax cuts for business (61 percent).
In this case, there is some contradictory data about what approach the public would pick if forced to choose. On Nov. 2-4, Gallup found that 32 percent said the economic package should have tax cuts, but 56 percent would prefer increased government spending on unemployment benefits and construction projects. A Fox News poll two weeks later found the opposite: 54 percent said cutting taxes would be "more likely" to stimulate the economy compared with 22 percent favoring increased government spending.
Immigration and Civil Liberties: Federal officials say more than a thousand people have been detained as part of the investigation into the Sept. 11 attacks. Most have been released, but many have been held on immigration charges or as material witnesses. Civil liberties groups have been sharply critical of the detentions, as well as the new law giving federal agents increased power to conduct electronic surveillance. Critics say there aren't enough safeguards in the law, which they fear could be used in routine criminal cases or against political opponents.
Public Agenda has found in the past that the public supports civil liberties in the abstract, but often hasn't spent much time thinking about the tradeoffs and precedents that might be set. Surveys over the past two months have picked up the expected mixed signals as the public tries to balance personal safety and civil rights in an uncertain atmosphere. (See our Red Flags section on Internet Free Speech and Privacy).
For example, before the new surveillance law was passed, about 79 percent of Americans told the CBS/New York Times poll that people will have to give up some personal freedoms to make the country safe from terrorist attacks. In the most recent Fox survey, 83 percent said the government should be allowed to hold suspected terrorists for "possibly a year or more," and 71 percent who said the CIA should be allowed to use "any means necessary, including physical force" when trying to get information to prevent future attacks.
But surveys also find the public's strongest instincts are for measures such as metal detectors in public buildings and tighter airport security. Only a third want increased electronic eavesdropping and even fewer support random searches by police. The Harris Poll found more than seven in 10 Americans who had "high" or "moderate concern" that judges would authorize surveillance too easily (79 percent); there would be broad use of racial profiling (77 percent); or that non-violent government critics would be put under surveillance (71 percent).
There is evidence of a spike in opposition to immigration since Sept. 11, with 58 percent of the public telling Gallup researchers last week that immigration should be decreased - a 20 point change since a year ago. Fox found 65 percent willing to temporarily stop all immigration as an anti-terrorist measure. This could be a short-term reaction, since support for immigration had generally been increasing since 1995. Historically, the public has mixed views on immigration, but usually makes a clear distinction between legal and illegal immigrants - with a far tougher stance on illegal immigrants. (See our Red Flags on Immigration).
The View of Islam Abroad. . . One issue that does concern Americans is the possibility that the "war on terrorism" will broaden, pitting Islamic and Arab nations against the U.S. and its allies. Sixty-six percent of Americans told the ABC/Washington Post poll that they're worried "somewhat" or "a great deal" that will happen. Both domestic and international critics argue that U.S. policies, such as support for Israel and sanctions against Iraq, helped spur extremism in the Middle East, and there have been protests in many Islamic nations against the air campaign.
Some 55 percent of Americans told the ABC/Washington Post poll they believed most Arabs and Muslims had a negative view of the U.S., and cited support for Israel (68 percent), the spread of Western culture (64 percent) and the presence of U.S. forces in the Mideast (63 percent) as the reasons. Yet Americans don't necessarily want to change those policies: only 29 percent told Newsweek that "the U.S. should reduce its ties to Israel in order to lessen the acts of terrorism against us." In late September, 70 percent in a Pew survey rejected the idea that the Sept. 11 attacks came about because "the U.S. has been unfair in its dealings with other countries."
Even before Sept. 11, while more Americans sympathized with the Israelis than the Palestinians, three-quarters believed the U.S. should not take a side. That distinction still holds for the public: In the ABC/Washington Post poll, 68 percent said the U.S. should continue to support Israel, but 55 percent also favored recognizing the Palestinians as an independent nation.
At this point, surveys show that Americans believe the United States is doing the right things to persuade Muslims to support the anti-terrorist coalition. Six in 10 told the CBS/New York Times survey that the U.S. is "doing enough" to win the support of the Arab world, and 84 percent say they are very or somewhat confident the U.S. will maintain the international coalition against terrorism.
. . . And the View of Islam at home: There have been reports of hate crimes around the country against Arabs, Muslims and other ethnic groups who might be mistaken for them, such as Sikhs and Hindus. Survey results over many years indicate that most Americans believe in tolerance, but at the moment are still wrestling with deep fear and frustration.
In two recent Public Agenda surveys, one on religion and public life and another on the values parents want to teach their children, we found Americans voiced a firm belief in religious and social tolerance. Most parents, for example, consider intolerance the mark of a bad citizen. Yet we also found that only 7 percent of Americans say they understand Islam well - perhaps not surprising since Muslims only make up 2 percent of the U.S. population.
Surveys have shown tolerance bending under the emotional strain of the past month. About 35 percent of those surveyed the week of Sept. 11 said they had less trust in Arab-Americans since the attack. Several questions show the public's fear and frustration right after the trade center attack, with 58 percent saying Arabs should undergo special security checks before boarding planes and 49 percent saying they should carry special identification.
In a Zogby International poll of Arab-Americans in early October, 20 percent said they personally had experienced discrimination since Sept. 11, and 45 percent said they knew someone else who had faced discrimination.
The anti-Arab sentiment may well have been a temporary and hopefully short-term reaction. The CBS/New York Times survey found the numbers who admit to "negative feelings" about Arabs declined in the month after the attacks, from 24 percent in a survey conducted Sept. 20-23 to 15 percent in an overnight poll conducted Oct. 8. Overnight polls are somewhat more prone to error than those conducted over several days, but ABC News also found a slight drop of those who said they were "personally suspicious" of Arabs, from 43 percent on Sept. 13 to 38 percent on Oct. 8-9. In another sign of public uncertainty, differently worded questions get different results. A Newsweek question that specifically mentioned the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II found 62 percent who said it would be a mistake to target any national group.
When terrifying events test deeply held values, Public Agenda has found it takes time for people to work through their views (see our essay on the Seven Stages of Public Opinion.) People's knee-jerk reactions on Arabs and Muslims may well be tempered by time, sober second thoughts and by their better selves.
Trust in Government: Not surprisingly, the approval ratings for President Bush continue to be high in all surveys. Americans consistently join ranks behind their leaders in the initial stages of a crisis. More surprising are survey results about trust in government in general, which fell during the years of Vietnam and Watergate and never recovered, regardless of how popular a particular president happened to be. In late September, the ABC News/Washington Post survey found 64 percent said they trust the government to do the right thing "most of the time" or "just about always," the highest rating since the 1960s. While this high trust level almost certainly reflects the sense of unity in the country, it would still be unique and should be watched carefully. Even during the Gulf War, when approval ratings for both the war and for President Bush's father were at high levels, the trust in government rating never exceeded 45 percent.
When asked specifically about anthrax, however, the approval ratings are weaker. As mentioned above, about half say the Bush administration has done a good job handling anthrax, compared with 43 percent "good" and 35 percent "fair" for Congress.
Public Agenda, based in New York, joins with all Americans in expressing our deepest sympathy to the victims and their families.
Read previous editions of our running analysis of public reaction to the attacks.
|