Public Support Steady as U.S. Opens Military Campaign
Updated Oct. 10, 2001
After a month of mourning the dead and building a global coalition against terrorism, U.S. and British forces opened a military campaign against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the al Qaeda network it harbors. The public has spent the weeks since the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon coming to terms with the unthinkable in ways reminiscent of Pearl Harbor and the Kennedy assassination. Perhaps that emotional preparation accounts for the initial consistency of public opinion about the "war on terror."
The first overnight polls show little change in public attitudes as the air strikes began. Overwhelming majorities of Americans support military action, just as they did prior to the air strikes, and they don't seem deterred by the prospect of U.S. or Afghan civilian casualties, protests in the Islamic world, or further terrorist attacks in the United States.
Despite the consistency of public opinion on several key questions, policymakers should be careful when considering survey results involving specific proposals. Sorrow and anger are still powerful forces in public attitudes, and large segments of the public are by no means finished grieving -- 42 percent of those surveyed by the Pew Research Center said they were still suffering moments of depression three weeks after the attacks.
Attacks in Afghanistan: Public support for military action has been high in polling since the World Trade Center attack. Since the first surveys after Sept. 11, when a massive 88 percent of Americans said the U.S. should take military action against those responsible, there's been little change. Overnight polls conducted this weekend by Gallup, ABC News/Washington Post, and CBS/The New York Times all show approval ratings by roughly nine in 10 Americans. Only 14 percent told the ABC/Washington Post poll on Sunday that the U.S. should have done more to find a diplomatic solution. Most (72 percent in the Gallup survey) think the U.S. waited the right amount of time before acting.
For most Americans, the primary virtue of a military response is deterrence. Before the air campaign, the Pew Research Center found 88 percent believed military action would both deter future attacks and punish those responsible. When those people were asked to choose which goal is more important, 57 percent said deterring future attacks, versus 22 percent for punishing the terrorists. Some 65 percent told the ABC/Washington Post overnight survey that not taking military action would increase the risk of more terror attacks.
Consistently, surveys over the past month have shown none of the potential drawbacks deter the public, with two-thirds or more of people in favor of military action even in the event of a lengthy conflict, a recession, or further terror attacks. That holds true in the overnight surveys, with 77 percent telling Gallup they would still favor attacks if ground forces were involved, and 65 percent in favor if Afghan civilians were killed.
But surveys have also suggested some nuance in public attitudes on a military response. When Newsweek researchers asked in September what would be "most effective" in preventing terrorist attacks, most people opted to play defense: three-quarters said tighter airport security and air marshals would be the most effective strategies, compared with 49 percent for military strikes and 44 percent for assassinating terrorist leaders. As late as Oct. 3-4, half of those surveyed by Fox News (51 percent) said they would prefer Osama bin Laden be brought to trial, compared with 36 percent who said he should be assassinated.
The air campaign has also provoked protests across the Islamic world from those who agree with al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden that this is a war between Islam and the West. Domestically, some critics argue that U.S. policies, such as support for Israel and sanctions against Iraq, helped spur extremism in the Middle East. At this point, most Americans don't agree. In late September, a Pew survey asked "Do you think there is any way the U.S. has been unfair in its dealings with other countries that might have motivated the terrorist attacks?" Seventy percent of those surveyed disagreed, and 21 percent agreed. By contrast, 48 percent said "not being tough enough" might have motivated the attacks.
At least initially, surveys show that Americans believe the United States is doing the right things to persuade Muslims to support the anti-terrorist coalition. Seven in 10 told the ABC/Washington Post survey that the U.S. is "doing enough" to win the support of Muslims and 77 percent support the $320 million aid package proposed for Afghanistan.
Trust in Government: Not surprisingly, the approval ratings for President Bush and Congress continue to be high in all surveys. Americans consistently join ranks behind their leaders in the initial stages of a crisis. More surprising are survey results about trust in government in general, which fell during the years of Vietnam and Watergate and never recovered, regardless of how popular a particular president happened to be. The ABC News/Washington Post survey found 64 percent said they trust the government to do the right thing "most of the time" or "just about always," the highest rating since the 1960s. While this high trust level almost certainly reflects the sense of unity in the country, it would still be unique and should be watched carefully. Even during the Gulf War, when approval ratings for both the war and for President Bush's father were at high levels, the trust in government rating never exceeded 45 percent.
Arab-Americans and Islam: There have been reports of hate crimes around the country against Arabs, Muslims and other ethnic groups who might be mistaken for them, such as Sikhs and Hindus. Survey results over many years indicate that most Americans believe in tolerance, but at the moment are still wrestling with deep fear and frustration.
In two recent Public Agenda surveys, one on religion and public life and another on the values parents want to teach their children, we found Americans voiced a firm belief in religious and social tolerance. Most parents, for example, consider intolerance the mark of a bad citizen. Yet we also found that only 7 percent of Americans say they understand Islam well - perhaps not surprising since Muslims only make up 2 percent of the U.S. population.
Surveys have shown tolerance bending under the emotional strain of the past month. About 35 percent of those surveyed the week of Sept. 11 said they had less trust in Arab-Americans since the attack. Several questions show the public's fear and frustration right after the trade center attack, with 58 percent saying Arabs should undergo special security checks before boarding planes and 49 percent saying they should carry special identification.
Yet other polls suggest this may be a surface reaction, one that may already be fading. A Newsweek question that specifically mentioned the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II found 62 percent who said it would be a mistake to target any national group. The CBS/New York Times survey found the numbers who admit to "negative feelings" about Arabs is declining, from 24 percent in a survey conducted Sept. 20-23 to 15 percent in the overnight poll conducted Oct. 8. It's also important to remember, however, that overnight surveys use smaller samples and are more prone to error than those conducted over several days.
When terrifying events test deeply held values, Public Agenda has found it takes time for people to work through their views (see our essay on the Seven Stages of Public Opinion.) People's knee-jerk reactions on Arabs and Muslims may well be tempered by time, sober second thoughts and by their better selves.
Immigration and Civil Liberties: The Bush administration says it needs additional police powers to fight terrorism, and has proposed expanded powers to detain legal immigrants, along with expanded wiretapping and Internet surveillance. Critics worry that the public may be willing to trade cherished civil liberties in name of national security.
About 79 percent of Americans told the CBS/New York Times poll that people will have to give up some personal freedoms to make the country safe from terrorist attacks. But in many surveys the public's strongest instincts are for tangible actions, such as metal detectors in public buildings and tighter airport security. Only a third want increased electronic eavesdropping and even fewer support random searches by police. The Harris Poll found more than seven in 10 Americans who had "high" or "moderate concern" that judges would authorize surveillance too easily (79 percent); there would be broad use of racial profiling (77 percent); or that non-violent government critics would be put under surveillance (71 percent).
Public Agenda's research has found that people usually support civil liberties in the abstract, but don't spend much time thinking about the specifics. The public also has relatively little knowledge of the technical issues and debates surrounding the Internet, such as the debate over encryption technology. (See our Red Flags section on Internet Free Speech and Privacy).
Another test of civil liberties is how the public responds to anyone who opposes military action or other government policies during the crisis. Surveys consistently show that the public initially rallies to support the president in a crisis, and that some forms of protest, such as burning the flag, provoke overwhelming hostile reactions. Other protests may only be perceived as unhelpful or unseemly. Gallup found the public evenly split in a Sept. 21-22 poll: 49 percent said people have the right to protest a military action, and another 49 percent said people should "rally around the country." Yet when Newsweek asked "Do you think someone can be patriotic and NOT support large-scale military action against terrorists," 64 percent agreed.
The public has mixed views on immigration in general, but usually makes a clear distinction between legal and illegal immigrants - with a far tougher stance on illegal immigrants. (See our Red Flags on Immigration).
A Grieving Nation: Americans seem to be recovering from their initial shock and grief. Forty percent told Newsweek that their lives have returned to normal. Only 15 percent said life would never be normal, and even fewer, 7 percent, said they felt any guilt about getting on with life. About 67 percent said the attacks made them appreciate their everyday life.
Still, it would be difficult to overestimate the emotional impact of the Sept. 11 attacks. Twenty percent of the public told the Pew Research Center either they or their family and friends know someone among the dead, missing or injured. About 71 percent had said they have felt depressed in the week after the attacks, and a follow-up Pew survey in early October found 42 percent who said they had still felt depressed in the previous few days. There's also been a strong public desire to take some personal action. Gallup found 82 percent either are displaying or plan to display the U.S. flag to show their support and sympathy. Fox News surveys report that 63 percent say they have donated money or clothing, and 16 percent say they've donated blood.
The Economy: Most Americans are at least somewhat worried the terrorist attacks will hurt the economy. Gallup found 79 percent support federal financial aid to the airlines, which have laid off tens of thousands of employees. In addition, 17 percent of those surveyed told Gallup their company had already been hurt financially by the attacks, and another 29 percent believed their company would be hurt in the future. Newsweek found only 26 percent who said the terror attacks would cause a long recession, but 58 percent who said it would bring about a brief one.
Public Agenda, based in New York, joins with all Americans in expressing our deepest sympathy to the victims and their families.
Read previous editions of our running analysis of public reaction to the attacks.
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