Surveys Show Public Grieving, Girding for 'War On Terror'
Updated Oct. 1, 2001
Only a handful of events, such as Pearl Harbor and the Kennedy assassination, can match the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in the shock, outrage and grief they have produced in the American people. The toll of dead and missing from the Sept. 11 attacks has risen to more than 6,500, and many of those missing will probably never be recovered from the wreckage of the World Trade Center.
Public Agenda has been analyzing survey results from all the major polling organizations since the attacks. Clearly, Americans' grief is profound and their resolve is real. Yet for those very reasons, policymakers should be careful when considering survey results involving specific proposals. When 70 percent of those surveyed by Gallup admit to weeping over the attacks, survey results must be seen in context, shaped by sorrow and anger.
Striking Back: A massive 88 percent of Americans say the U.S. should take military action against those responsible, and yet 73 percent of those favoring an attack are also willing to wait until specific culprits are identified. At this point, none of the potential drawbacks deter the public, with two-thirds or more of people in favor of military action even in the event of a lengthy conflict, a recession, or further terror attacks. The most recent CBS/New York Times poll found 68 percent favoring a strike even if it caused "many thousands of civilian casualties." About 76 percent told Gallup they would support an anti-terror campaign even if it meant 5,000 military casualties, and 84 percent said they would support it even if it meant 5,000 additional U.S. civilian casualties.
For most Americans, the primary virtue of a military response is deterrence. The Pew Research Center found 88 percent believe military action would both deter future attacks and punish those responsible. When those people were asked to choose which goal is more important, 57 percent said deterring future attacks, versus 22 percent for punishing the terrorists.
But surveys also suggest some doubts about the effectiveness of a military response. When Newsweek researchers asked what would be "most effective" in preventing terrorist attacks, most people opt to play defense: three-quarters said tighter airport security and air marshals would be the most effective strategies, compared with 49 percent for military strikes and 44 percent for assassinating terrorist leaders.
Arab-Americans and Islam: There have been reports of hate crimes around the country against Arabs, Muslims and Sikhs (who are neither Arabs nor Muslims, but whose traditional turbans have made them a target). Survey results over many years indicate that most Americans believe in tolerance, but at the moment are still wrestling with deep fear and frustration.
In two recent Public Agenda surveys, one on religion and public life and another on the values parents want to teach their children, we found Americans voiced a firm belief in religious and social tolerance. Most parents, for example, consider intolerance the mark of a bad citizen. Yet we also found that only 7 percent of Americans say they understand Islam well -- perhaps not surprising since Muslims only make up 2 percent of the U.S. population.
About 35 percent of those surveyed the week of the attack said they had less trust in Arab-Americans since the attack. In the CBS/New York Times poll conducted Sept. 20-23, 24 percent admitted to "negative feelings" about Arab-Americans -- far from a majority, but potentially more than enough to cause trouble. Several questions show the public's fear and frustration, with 58 percent saying Arabs should undergo special security checks before boarding planes and 49 percent saying they should carry special identification.
Yet other polls suggest this may be a surface reaction. A Newsweek question that specifically mentioned the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II found 62 percent who said it would be a mistake to target any national group. A Pew survey found 57 percent who oppose the idea of internment camps to round up immigrants from "hostile nations." And 90 percent in the CBS/New York Times poll said it was likely that immigrants from the Middle East "will be singled out unfairly."
When deeply held values are tested by terrifying events, Public Agenda has found it takes time for people to work through their views (see our essay on the Seven Stages of Public Opinion.) People's knee-jerk reactions on Arabs and Muslims may well be tempered by time, sober second thoughts and by their better selves.
Immigration, Surveillance and Civil Liberties: The Bush administration has already waived rules on detaining immigrants, allowing legal immigrants suspected of terrorist activities essentially to be held indefinitely. The administration has also proposed expanded wiretapping and Internet surveillance.
Some 79 percent of Americans told the CBS/New York Times poll that people will have to give up some personal freedoms to make the country safe from terrorist attacks. But in many surveys the public's strongest instincts are for tangible actions, such as metal detectors in public buildings and tighter airport security. Only a third want increased electronic eavesdropping and even fewer support random searches by police. Public Agenda's research has found that people usually support civil liberties in the abstract, but don't spend much time thinking about the specifics. The public also has relatively little knowledge of the technical issues and debates surrounding the Internet, such as the debate over encryption technology. (See our Red Flags section on Internet Free Speech and Privacy).
Another test of civil liberties is how the public responds to anyone who opposes military action or other government policies during the crisis. Surveys consistently show that the public initially rallies to support the president in a crisis, and that some forms of protest, such as burning the flag, provoke overwhelming hostile reactions. Other protests may only be perceived as unhelpful or unseemly. Gallup found the public evenly split in a Sept. 21-22 poll: 49 percent said people have the right to protest a military action, and another 49 percent said people should "rally around the country." Yet when Newsweek asked "Do you think someone can be patriotic and NOT support large-scale military action against terrorists," 64 percent agreed.
The public has mixed views on immigration in general, but usually makes a clear distinction between legal and illegal immigrants - with a far tougher stance on illegal immigrants. (See our Red Flags on Immigration).
A Grieving Nation: Americans seem to be recovering from their initial shock and grief. Forty percent told Newsweek that their lives have returned to normal. Only 15 percent said life would never be normal, and even fewer, 7 percent, said they felt any guilt about getting on with life. Some 67 percent said the attacks made them appreciate their everyday life.
Still, it would be difficult to overestimate the emotional impact of the Sept. 11 attacks. Twenty percent of the public told the Pew Research Center either they or their family and friends know someone among the dead, missing or injured. About 71 percent had said they have felt depressed in the week after the attacks, and a third said they had trouble sleeping. There's also been a strong public desire to take some personal action. Gallup found 82 percent either are displaying or plan to display the U.S. flag to show their support and sympathy. A Fox News survey reports that 63 percent say they have donated money or clothing, and 10 percent say they've donated blood.
The Economy: Most Americans are at least somewhat worried the terrorist attacks will hurt the economy. Gallup found 79 percent support federal financial aid to the airlines, which have laid off tens of thousands of employees. In addition, 17 percent of those surveyed told Gallup their company had already been hurt financially by the attacks, and another 29 percent believed their company would be hurt in the future. Newsweek found only 26 percent who said the terror attacks would cause a long recession, but 58 percent who said it would bring about a brief one.
Trust in Government: Not surprisingly, the approval ratings for President Bush and Congress are very high in all surveys. Americans consistently join ranks behind their leaders in the initial stages of a crisis. More surprising are survey results about trust in government in general, which fell during the years of Vietnam and Watergate and never recovered, regardless of how popular a particular president happened to be. The ABC News/Washington Post survey found 64 percent said they trust the government to do the right thing "most of the time" or "just about always," the highest rating since the 1960s. While this high trust level almost certainly reflects the sense of unity in the country, it would still be unique and should be watched carefully. Even during the Gulf War, when approval ratings for both the war and for President Bush's father were at high levels, the trust in government rating never exceeded 45 percent.
Public Agenda, based in New York, joins with all Americans in expressing our deepest sympathy to the victims and their families.
Read previous editions of our running analysis of public reaction to the attacks.
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