Half of Public Says 'Axis of Evil' Speech Responsible
Updated Feb. 28, 2002
President Bush's "axis of evil" speech, accusing Iraq, Iran and North Korea of sponsoring terrorism, continued to be the center of debate during Bush's trip to Asia, including a stop in South Korea. Two-thirds of Americans said the "axis of evil" speech was intended as a warning to those nations that the U.S. was keeping a close watch on them, according to a Newsweek survey. Only one in five Americans surveyed said the comment was meant as a serious threat of a U.S. attack. Half of those surveyed by Fox News said Bush's "axis of evil" statement was "correct and responsible," compared to 12 percent who said it was incorrect and 27 percent who said it was correct - but Bush was irresponsible to say it.
Three-quarters of the public support using force to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, but the public has consistently supported striking against Hussein since the Gulf War. Yet the public does not automatically turn to force; more than half say the U.S.'s next moves should be economic and diplomatic. Four in 10 say the U.S. should get U.N. approval before an attack on Iraq.
The public's confidence in the "war on terrorism" remains high and concern about new attacks continues to moderate. In fact, surveys taken the week of Jan. 28 show the economy as a greater concern than terrorism. Yet polls in mid-February found a solid majority of Americans continue to say further terrorist attacks are at least "somewhat likely" over the next several months.
In the aftermath of Sept. 11, questions continue to be asked about how the billions raised by charities to help victims of the attacks are being spent. Half of those surveyed by Fox News said they are at least "somewhat" confident the funds are being spent properly, but four in 10 expressed doubts.
Public Agenda's focus is on public opinion in the United States, but Gallup's newly released survey of opinion in nine Islamic countries is noteworthy. Gallup found that while two-thirds of those surveyed condemned the Sept. 11 attacks, six in 10 do not believe the attacks were carried out by Arabs, and 77 percent say the U.S. military action in Afghanistan is unjustified. USA Today offers more details on the poll. The full report is available through Gallup.
Bin Laden, Prisoners of War and Military Tribunals
After criticism by human rights groups and European allies, the Bush administration has decided to apply Geneva Convention protections to Taliban fighters captured in Afghanistan but not members of al Qaeda. Several legal groups continue to try and have the detainees face civilian courts, rather than the proposed military tribunals.
Most Americans (72 percent in the Gallup poll taken Jan. 25-27) say the treatment of detainees at Guantanamo is "acceptable." Gallup also asked questions describing the treatment of a detainee who was held "outdoors in an 8 foot by 8 foot cell, and when traveling …was blindfolded and his hands bound." Three-quarters told Gallup that it would be acceptable to hold a Taliban soldier under those conditions. Half of those surveyed (49 percent) said that would also be acceptable treatment for an American soldier captured in war; 46 percent said it would be unacceptable.
One of the most controversial strategies to fight terrorism has been President Bush's order permitting non-citizens accused of terrorism to be tried by special military tribunals, which could be closed to the public and offer defendants fewer rights than in a criminal court or a conventional military court-martial. The primary candidates for such a trial, of course, are Osama bin Laden and captured members of his al Qaeda network. While bin Laden is still at large, more than 350 suspected al Qaeda and Taliban fighters are being held in U.S. custody.
Public opinion has not changed on military tribunals since the idea was announced. The ABC News/Washington Post poll on Jan. 27 found 60 percent in favor, almost identical to results in November. A more detailed November question giving arguments for tribunals (protecting ongoing probes and that civilian jurors might be afraid to convict) and against (closed proceedings that singled out non-citizens) also showed virtually the same results.
It's worth noting that surveys regularly find that the military is one of the most trusted public institutions, and ranks considerably higher in surveys than the criminal justice system. In any event, 77 percent of those surveyed by Fox News on Jan. 11 said they were "very" or "somewhat" confident accused terrorists would receive fair trials.
As a U.S. citizen, the so-called "American Taliban" John Walker Lindh is facing a civilian trial on charges of conspiring to kill Americans overseas and providing support to a terrorist organization. The Bush administration chose not to charge Lindh with treason, which is more difficult to prove. Sixty percent told Gallup they disagree with the government's decision not to pursue treason charges. Lindh's lawyers say statements he made to interrogators in Afghanistan without a lawyer present should be thrown out. Seventy-one percent of Americans told Gallup the statements should be allowed in evidence.
When it comes to the fate of bin Laden himself, however, the public does not completely reject the idea of a civilian or international trial. President Bush has said the U.S. wants bin Laden "dead or alive," and a Gallup survey on Nov. 26-27 found 54 percent who said it would be better for the U.S. if he was killed.
If bin Laden is taken alive, however, 62 percent told Gallup they want to see him put on trial, compared with 35 percent who would execute him immediately. Some 59 percent say he should be tried by the U.S., rather than an international court (37 percent). If tried by the U.S., 54 percent surveyed Dec. 14-16 say bin Laden should face a military tribunal and 41 percent said a regular civilian court. At this point, the public would apply the same principles to any terrorists; a Gallup question that asked how any suspected terrorists should be tried found almost exactly the same results.
If convicted, 69 percent in the Gallup survey say bin Laden should get the death penalty; 28 percent preferred a life sentence without parole.
For many Americans, getting hold of bin Laden himself has consistently been a key war aim. But the number who say the U.S. must capture or kill bin Laden for the war to be a success appears to be falling: 46 percent in the Jan. 27 ABC News/Washington Post survey, compared to 64 percent on Dec. 19. Yet most people say they're at least somewhat confident the U.S. will catch bin Laden (63 percent in the ABC/Washington Post poll, 73 percent in the CBS/New York Times survey).
Immigration and Civil Liberties
Attorney General John Ashcroft and the Justice Department are coming in for stiff criticism from Congress and civil liberties groups over some of the actions taken to pursue terrorists. So far, surveys show most Americans support specific elements of the crackdown, but polls also suggest the public is beginning to struggle with concerns about fairness and civil liberties.
From the very first surveys after the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, most Americans told pollsters that the country would have to give up some rights to fight terrorism (79 percent in a CBS/New York Times poll in September). More recent surveys show some shifts and qualifications in public attitudes, particularly as time passes without any new attacks. The Gallup survey on Jan. 25-27 found the public split: 47 percent said the government should take "all steps necessary" to prevent terrorism even if "basic civil liberties" were violated, while 49 percent disagreed. In November, Newsweek found 72 percent who said the Bush administration was "about right" in its approach to civil liberties, but in its Jan. 31- Feb. 1 survey that number fell to 59 percent.
Public Agenda has found in the past that the public supports civil liberties in the abstract, but often hasn't spent much time thinking about the tradeoffs and precedents that might be set. (See our Red Flags on Internet Free Speech and Privacy). Also, personal experience is always a potent factor in public attitudes, and few Americans have ever lived under the restrictions that worry civil libertarians.
The public also has a long history of trusting the police more than the criminal justice system, and valuing being tough on criminals over the rights of the accused. There are important racial differences in those attitudes, however, and the ABC/Washington Post survey did find that minorities are less likely to be supportive of restrictions.
But surveys also find that when asked what should be done to prevent terrorism, the public's strongest instincts are for measures such as metal detectors in public buildings and tighter airport security. Only a third want increased electronic eavesdropping and even fewer support random searches by police.
The way survey questions are worded seems to make a difference in the response - usually a warning sign that public attitudes can change depending on events or as people learn more about an issue. When CBS/Times researchers simply asked whether it's a good or bad idea to allow the government to listen in on conversations between suspected terrorists in jail and their lawyers, 72 percent thought it was a good idea. But when researchers rephrased the question to add that attorney-client conversations have always been private, only 30 percent said it was a good idea.
A Nov. 27 ABC/Washington Post poll also found 86 percent who said the government was justified in detaining immigrants who had overstayed their visas or otherwise violated immigration laws. Those alleged violations may provide important context to public attitudes about the hundreds who have been detained during federal investigations. Historically, the public has mixed views on immigration, but usually makes a clear distinction between legal and illegal immigrants - with a far tougher stance on illegal immigrants. (See our Red Flags on Immigration).
There is evidence of a spike in opposition to immigration since Sept. 11, with 58 percent of the public telling Gallup researchers last month that immigration should be decreased - a 20 point change since a year ago. Fox found 65 percent willing to temporarily stop all immigration as an anti-terrorist measure. This could be a short-term reaction, since support for immigration had generally been increasing since 1995, or it could signal the beginning of a long-term reconsideration.
The War in Afghanistan - and the 'Axis of Evil'
With success in the field, much of the debate has turned to how to rebuild a stable government in Afghanistan and whether to pursue other nations that may sponsor terrorism or provide potential al Qaeda havens.
In his State of the Union address, President Bush cited Iraq, Iran and North Korea as terrorist sponsors and an "axis of evil," a view he toned down but still maintained in his recent Asia trip. Several European governments criticized the speech as simplistic and consider any plans to expand the war to other nations dangerous. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against striking Iraq without the backing of the United Nations.
Half (49 percent) of those surveyed by Fox News on Feb. 12-13 said the "axis of evil" speech was "correct and a responsible thing to say." Only 12 percent thought it was incorrect, and 27 percent said it was correct but Bush was irresponsible to say it. Two-thirds of Americans told Newsweek they saw the speech as "a warning to let them know we're keeping a close watch." Only 19 percent told Newsweek on Jan. 31-Feb. 1 they thought the speech was intended as a "serious threat" that the U.S. would attack those countries.
Nearly three-quarters of Americans (73 percent) say the U.S. should lead military attacks "in other countries where it believes terrorists are hiding" such as Iraq, Somalia and the Philippines, according to the CBS/New York Times poll. Sixty-five percent said they would still approve of U.S. attacks if other countries refused to support the action.
Almost as many (71 percent) would support military action to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, according to the ABC News/Washington Post survey on Jan. 27. Then again, many Americans have always said the U.S. should have removed Hussein during the Gulf War, ranging from 70 percent in 1993 to 52 percent last February.
Most of the public supports using U.S. troops as peacekeepers in Afghanistan (78 percent in a late-November Gallup poll, 73 percent in a December ABC/Washington Post poll). In addition, 71 percent told ABC the U.S. should take a "leading" or "large" role in sending food and economic aid to Afghanistan, and 64 percent said the U.S. should help establish a new government there.
But the public may not automatically view further military action as the next step. When Gallup asked how the U.S. should wage the "war on terrorism" after achieving its goals in Afghanistan, more than half chose economic and diplomatic efforts (54 percent) compared to 39 percent for "direct military action."
Overall, public support for military action has been high and unwavering since the Sept. 11 attacks, when the first surveys found that nine in 10 Americans backed military action against those responsible. This support has been consistent since then in all surveys, regardless of events. The latest Gallup poll, taken Jan. 25-27, found 89 percent in support of the war, while the CBS/New York Times poll found 87 percent support on Jan. 21-24. Surveys have also consistently found that two-thirds or more of the public has been in favor of military action even in the event of a lengthy conflict, a recession or further terror attacks.
The Home Front and Victims Compensation
Overall fear of terrorism seems to be dropping in surveys, as more time passes without a new attack. Only 23 percent told the CBS/New York Times poll on Jan. 21-24 that they considered another terrorist attack "very likely" during the next few months, compared to 53 percent in late October. Nearly half, however, said another attack was "somewhat likely."
Overall, the government has been getting lower marks for its handling of terrorism at home than for the war in Afghanistan. In its Jan. 7-9 survey, Gallup found the public evenly split: 51 percent said they were "very" or "somewhat satisfied" with the nation's security from terrorism, compared to 47 percent who were dissatisfied. Yet nearly six in 10 (57 percent) said they were confident the government could prevent further attacks, according to the Jan. 27 ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Greater unease with flying has been seen both in surveys and in actual travel bookings since Sept. 11. From the very first surveys after the attacks, the public has said tighter security would be a major deterrent to terrorism. In late October, however, the CBS/New York Times poll found 51 percent who believed the airlines hadn't done enough to improve airport security, and 42 percent who thought the federal government hadn't done enough.
Numerous surveys have found only very small numbers of Americans ever sought out antibiotics in fear of bioterrorism. Shortly after the first anthrax cases were reported, the ABC News/Washington Post poll found 5 percent had spoken to a doctor about anthrax and 2 percent said they had actually bought antibiotics. Still, with the Postal Service advising caution in opening mail, 31 percent told Newsweek on Oct. 25-26 that they'd actually thrown out mail they didn't recognize. Yet as recently as Feb. 12-13, three-quarters admitted to Fox News that they were worried about bioterrorism - a slight increase over October.
The charitable response to Sept. 11 gets mixed reviews from the public. Half of the public told Fox News they are at least "somewhat" confident the charity funds are being spent properly, but 43 percent expressed doubts.
Survivors of those killed on Sept. 11 have criticized the government's compensation plan, designed to provide up to $1.6 million per victim, with families waiving the right to sue. The government plans to subtract any insurance or other compensation from the federal payment, which has been sharply criticized by victims' families. The public may or may not have grappled with the complexities of the plan, but their first reaction in surveys is that the plan seems fair. Seventy-two percent of those surveyed in the ABC/Washington Post poll said families should be compensated, and 54 percent agree that insurance benefits should be deducted from the total.
Nine in 10 Americans say the country has been changed by Sept. 11, and 69 percent told the ABC News/Washington Post poll on Dec. 19 that it has been a change for the better. More than half (55 percent) say their personal life has changed "in a lasting way," and a majority of those (72 percent) say the change has been in the way they feel, rather than how they live their day-to-day lives. Some 71 percent say the personal changes have been for the better. While many commentators spoke of a greater sense of community since Sept. 11, the public is apparently skeptical that will translate into success for President Bush's call for greater volunteerism. Thirty percent of those surveyed told Newsweek that "very few" will get more involved, and another 34 percent said "only some" would act.
One way in which day-to day behavior hasn't changed is in attendance at religious services. While there were news reports of large attendance at church and at memorial services after the terror attacks, Gallup reports that polls only showed a small increase in weekly religious attendance. By December, Gallup found weekly religious attendance had dropped to 41 percent - about average for Americans.
The Economy
With the war in Afghanistan proceeding well and no further terrorist attacks to unsettle the public, the public now considers the economy a greater problem (54 percent) than terrorism (43 percent), according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post survey. However, it's important to note that there have been no terrorist attacks since the October anthrax scare, and public concern could shift quickly if new attacks occur.
There have been some recent signs of greater public optimism on the economy. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll on Jan. 18-21 found 47 percent who said "the worst is over" for the recession, compared to 41 percent who said the worst is yet to come. By comparison, the Dec. 6-9 Gallup poll found 44 percent of the public who said the economy is getting better, which itself was an increase of 14 points from a poll in early November.
Public attitudes were becoming more pessimistic about the economy even before Sept. 11, and afterwards most Americans said they were at least somewhat worried the terrorist attacks will hurt the economy. And those findings were before unemployment figures were released that showed the largest one-month jump in joblessness for two decades. Surveys consistently show that for most people, the unemployment and inflation rates are the most important measures of the economy's health. Significantly, 54 percent told Gallup in December they personally knew someone who had lost their job. But 67 percent told the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in January that it's "not very likely" that they would lose their own job.
Congress has been sharply divided on how to stimulate the economy. In early October, Gallup found the public thought most of the suggestions had merit, including extending unemployment benefits (94 percent in favor), passing new tax cuts for low- and moderate-income workers (86 percent), increased government spending for job training and construction (75 percent), and new tax cuts for business (61 percent).
When asked to choose in the most recent Gallup survey (Jan. 7-9), the public was divided: 46 percent favored increased government spending to spur the economy and 41 percent wanted additional tax cuts. But two-thirds (67 percent) said the tax cut passed last year by Congress should go into effect.
One key factor in the stimulus debate has been that the federal budget surplus of the past several years has turned into a deficit. When asked what caused the deficit, Fox News found 34 percent who blamed increased spending to deal with terrorism, 26 percent who blamed the tax cuts, and 13 percent who believed both were to blame. But a substantial 21 percent said they didn't know.
Another sign of public priorities lies in President Bush's approval ratings. His overall approval rating remains quite high, but in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, only 62 percent approved of his handling of the economy, compared to 88 percent approval for his handling of terrorism.
The View of Islam Abroad. . .
One issue that does concern Americans is the possibility that the "war on terrorism" will broaden, pitting Islamic and Arab nations against the U.S. and its allies. Sixty-six percent of Americans told the ABC/Washington Post poll in October that they're worried "somewhat" or "a great deal" that will happen. Both domestic and international critics argue that U.S. policies, such as support for Israel and sanctions against Iraq, helped spur extremism in the Middle East, and there have been protests in many Islamic nations against the Afghanistan campaign.
Some 55 percent of Americans told the ABC/Washington Post poll they believed most Arabs and Muslims had a negative view of the U.S., and cited support for Israel (68 percent), the spread of Western culture (64 percent), and the presence of U.S. forces in the Mideast (63 percent) as the reasons. Nearly half (48 percent) told Newsweek in early December that U.S. support for "friendly but dictatorial" regimes played a role in increasing support for Islamic militants. But more than one-fifth (22 percent) said they didn't know.
Yet Americans don't necessarily want to change those policies: only 29 percent told Newsweek in October that "the U.S. should reduce its ties to Israel in order to lessen the acts of terrorism against us." The public was divided when Newsweek asked if the U.S. should pressure Middle Eastern countries toward democracy, "even if it means Islamic extremists might win power." Again, 48 percent said yes, but 40 percent said no.
. . . and The View of Islam at Home
There have been reports of hate crimes around the country against Arabs, Muslims and other ethnic groups who might be mistaken for them, such as Sikhs and Hindus. Survey results over many years indicate that most Americans believe in religious tolerance. But just as clearly, Americans are still wrestling with fears surrounding a religion most admit they don't understand.
In two Public Agenda surveys conducted prior to Sept. 11, one on religion and public life and another on the values parents want to teach their children, we found Americans voiced a firm belief in religious and social tolerance. Most parents, for example, consider intolerance the mark of a bad citizen. Yet we also found in January 2001 that only 7 percent of Americans said they understand Islam well - perhaps not surprising since Muslims only make up 2 percent of the U.S. population.
Even nearly six months after the attacks, many Americans don't know what to make of Islam. In an ABC News/Beliefnet survey on Jan. 6, more than one-third (35 percent) chose "no opinion" when asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable view of Islam. Only 14 percent said they believed "mainstream Islam" encourages violence, and 57 percent said they considered it a "peaceful religion," but 29 percent were undecided. And when ABC News asked about violent extremists, 38 percent said Islam had more extremists than other religions, while 41 percent said Islam had no more than other religions. Only 5 percent said Islam had fewer extremists, and 17 percent were unsure. All these questions found an extremely high level of undecideds -- usually anything over 10 percent is considered a sign of public volatility.
Surveys conducted in September clearly found tolerance bending under the emotional strain of the attacks. About 35 percent of those surveyed the week of Sept. 11 said they had less trust in Arab-Americans since the attack. Several questions show the public's fear and frustration right after the trade center attack, with 58 percent saying Arabs should undergo special security checks before boarding planes and 49 percent saying they should carry special identification.
There are conflicting results, however, on whether this concern is rising or falling. The CBS/New York Times survey found the numbers who think Arab-Americans are "more sympathetic" to terrorists may have increased by early December, from 28 percent on Sept. 13-14 to 33 percent by Dec. 7-10. The later survey was taken in the aftermath of a series of suicide bombings in Israel, which may have affected public attitudes. Yet the ABC News/Washington Post survey found the number who said they were "personally suspicious" of people of Arab descent fell from 43 percent on Sept. 13 to 31 percent on Dec. 19. The difference might be because the two surveys focus on slightly different aspects of the issue; perhaps the public is making a distinction between feeling someone is sympathetic to a cause and actually feeling threatened.
In a Zogby International poll of Arab-Americans in early October, 20 percent said they personally had experienced discrimination since Sept. 11, and 45 percent said they knew someone else who had faced discrimination.
Trust in Government
Eight in 10 Americans approve of how President Bush is handling his job, a figure that's been consistent in all surveys since the fall. Americans consistently join ranks behind their leaders in the initial stages of a crisis. More surprising are survey results about trust in government in general, which fell during the years of Vietnam and Watergate and never recovered, regardless of how popular a particular president happened to be. In late September, the ABC News/Washington Post survey found 64 percent said they trust the government to do the right thing "most of the time" or "just about always," the highest rating since the 1960s. The Jan. 21-24 CBS/New York Times poll found 46 percent who said the government did the right thing "just about always" or "most of the time" (compared with 26 percent in 1998). While this high trust level almost certainly reflects the sense of unity in the country, it would still be unique and should be watched carefully. Even during the Gulf War, when approval ratings for both the war and for President Bush's father were at high levels, the trust in government rating never exceeded 45 percent.
When asked about specific issues, however, the approval ratings are weaker. In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, 88 percent approved of President Bush's handing of terrorism, but only 62 percent approved of his handling of the economy. In a Newsweek survey on Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 54 percent said President Bush's opponents should "go along" with his policies on terrorism, compared to 38 percent who said opponents should "push for a full debate." But on the economy and other domestic issues, the percentages were almost exactly reversed: 54 percent wanted a full debate, compared to 39 percent who wanted the opposition to go along on domestic policy.
Read previous editions of our running analysis of public reaction to the attacks.
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