Tuesday, July 29th, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
I fear that the current state of our democracy is not robust enough to prevent the damage a biased-toward-the-rich form of capitalism is bound to wreak on our society.
We are doing reasonably well in observing the external trappings of democracy – voting, the rule of law, divided powers, etc. This is vitally important because it helps us to preserve our freedom and political stability.
But we are not doing as well on the substantive side of democracy – the side implicit in Lincoln’s definition of democracy as government of, by and for the people. Government by the people clearly implies that the people must have a say in the decisions that affect their lives.
Monday, July 21st, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
If traditional economic policies can get our economy back to healthy growth that benefits average households (the old normal), then we can be optimistic about the future.
I don’t think, however, that we can return to the old normal. The conditions that made the old normal possible – lots of low-skill/well paying manufacturing jobs, strong labor bargaining power, less mechanization of jobs, less demand for higher education skills, unique global competitiveness – no longer exist. Nor have we developed policies to induce the new form of capitalism to benefit average households.
Kheel Center / Flickr
The perceptive political analyst William Galston reluctantly draws the inevitable inferences in a recent column in the Wall Street Journal. He personally favors old-normal economic policies. But he admits that the facts push him “to a more radical conclusion," namely, that “we need a …revised social contract that links compensation to productivity and…new policies to bring it about.” He realizes that there is no going back to the policies that worked in the past.
In the near future, momentous decisions need to be made. Do we accept as the new normal the reality that large numbers of Americans are no longer needed for the private sector job market of the future? If so, what do we do with all these “redundant” people?
Monday, July 14th, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
The recent decline in moral norms is, I believe, relatively superficial. It reflects frustration with the political status quo rather than its outright rejection. People are frustrated because they feel they don’t have a voice.
This is the common pattern we've seen in recent years:
- Americans demand a greater voice in shaping the decisions that directly affect their lives. This demand is repeatedly unfulfilled.
- In frustration, the public’s mistrust of our institutions, inattention to important issues, and general cynicism all grow stronger.
- Elites often seem contemptuous of the views of average Americans. This attitude contributes to the public’s frustration.
- Elites also tend to define problems in technical terms that the general public doesn’t understand, exacerbating the public’s feelings of isolation.
- Both Democrats and Republicans show a disregard for the public’s voice in shaping policy initiatives.
Tuesday, July 8th, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
Our current form of capitalism undermines America’s core ethic. It has become ridden with obstacles to social mobility. A strong commitment to fairness is essential to our nation’s conception of the common good; a less democracy-friendly capitalism violates the common good in favor of top tier of the income scale.
κύριαsity / flickr
Large inequalities of income, by themselves, do not violate America’s sense of fairness. Billionaires like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett are actually folk heroes. Large inequalities become unfair in people’s minds only when they feel that they themselves are stuck in a rut with no opportunity to improve their lot in life.
07.01 Harbingers of Change
Tuesday, July 1st, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
Two recent news items may be harbingers of a massive change in our society. If so, it will be a mostly positive change that reduces inequality and restores greater social mobility. But it may also create upheaval in our institutions of higher education.
One of the news items describes a college-support program for Starbucks employees. Starbucks and Arizona State University have agreed to a partnership whereby Starbucks will pay a big part of the tuition for employees taking online courses for credit toward a college degree.
The other news item concerns Corinthian Colleges, one of the nation’s largest for-profit colleges. Regulators are investigating whether Corinthian’s colleges have been pushing their students into high-cost loans, saddling them with debt while not delivering on their promise of well-paying jobs. Student enrollment is declining sharply and Corinthian, facing bankruptcy, agreed to sell off and shutter its campuses.
Why are these two events harbingers of change?
Tuesday, June 24th, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
I fear that the deep trends unwinding social mobility cannot be reversed merely by modest short-term fixes like increasing the minimum wage. Of course we should do as much as possible to ensure that people with full time jobs do not fall below the poverty line. These are necessary but not sufficient actions.
We also need a long-term strategy to restore our economic and moral vitality based on a sound understanding of the deeper forces at work and how to reverse them. The least understood of these deep forces is the one undermining our social and ethical norms.
Increasingly, we equate doing wrong with breaking the law, thereby condoning selfish, irresponsible behavior as long as it is lawful. In my last post, I described this phenomenon as “anomie” -- the state of normlessness.
The causes of this condition of anomie are clear if one knows how to connect the dots.
Tuesday, June 17th, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
The Wall Street versus Main Street narrative is popular. It is comforting to believe that greed and putting your own interests ahead of others are confined to Wall Street, while the rest of us are merely innocent, norm-abiding bystanders.
Wall Street’s behavior does feed this perception. The real estate boom preceding the Great Recession of 2007-08 featured an ugly feeding-frenzy devoid of ethics. Some of our most highly esteemed financial institutions developed a massive ethical blind spot that violated our society’s most treasured moral norms.
A closer look, however, shows a more nuanced – and balanced – picture. Yes, the banks had lowered their ethical norms. Yes, they had handed out so-called “liar mortgages” indiscriminately. Yes, the rest of us were fleeced.
But that doesn’t mean that Main Street’s ethical norms remained pristine while Wall Street’s norms deteriorated. The liar mortgages were given to people who blatantly lied about their own financial situation.
Tuesday, June 10th, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
Equality of opportunity is shrinking, and there is a growing national consensus that we must reverse this trend. Both political parties, as well as the public at large, share a reasonably sound understanding that distortions in our economy have led to stagnant wages for middle- and lower-income Americans with greater concentrations of wealth at the top.
A global economy that makes it profitable for American companies to export jobs to lower wage nations, technological advances that permit companies to replace workers with machines, high rates of unemployment that rob workers of bargaining power -- these are some of the main economic forces that create the inequality of opportunity eroding our social contract and driving American society into a hole. Now that we understand them, we are likely to move toward remedying the economic problems they create for us.
Unfortunately, we do not yet have an equally sound understanding of the non-economic forces exacerbating these problems. Economies don’t operate in a vacuum; their strengths and weaknesses depend on the larger political and ethical contexts of the society of which they are a part. That is why capitalism is so different in China, Russia, Brazil and Turkey than in the United States and its closest allies.
Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
Structural changes are making our form of capitalism less democratic. Not surprisingly, these changes are also creating a new wave of populism. In his 2014 State of the Union address, President Obama labeled inequality of opportunities and declining social mobility as America’s "defining challenge of our times", and proclaimed that "we must reverse these trends."
In advance of his speech observers wondered whether he would emphasize the left/liberal remedy of seeking redistribution of incomes or the more moderate/conservative remedy of seeking to improve equality of opportunity.
He unequivocally chose the latter. I think he made the right choice.
Wednesday, May 28th, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
What are the forces driving our nation into this deep hole? One is a structural change in our system of capitalism. It is shifting from a form of capitalism friendly to the core principles of democracy to one much less so.
In the decades following WWII, our growing economy was referred to as the “rising tide that raises all boats.” This metaphor captured the democracy-friendly thrust of our economy.
Consumer demand accounts for an astounding 70 percent of our economy. When jobs are plentiful and wages at all levels rise steadily, consumer demand stimulates economic growth. This form of capitalism is profoundly democratic, spreading opportunity throughout the working population.
Tuesday, May 20th, 2014 | Daniel Yankelovich
For years now, our nation has been digging itself into a pit of social immobility that threatens the very core of our democracy. Every year we confront:
- Growing income inequality.
- Shrinking opportunities for individuals to better themselves and their children.
- Disproportionate accumulation of wealth in the top income brackets.
- Slow recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-8.
- The failure of our education system in preparing our children to compete successfully in today's global economy.
- Paralysis in Washington.
Polls show that, by greater than two to one margins (58 percent to 28 percent), Americans believe that the country is on the wrong track. A 70 percent majority use words like "divided", "troubled" and "deteriorating" to describe the state of the nation.
Tuesday, May 20th, 2014 | Will Friedman, Ph.D.
Today, Public Agenda announces the launch of a new blog. It is called Rebooting Democracy and is authored by our co-founder, Dan Yankelovich.
Dan is not only one of the towering figures in the evolution of public opinion research. He is also a public-spirited and pragmatic intellectual who has devoted his life to thinking through the problems facing America’s democratic experiment and the strategies we might employ to keep it on course. And he does this without partisan rancor or indulgence.