Wednesday, July 14th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
Public concern about the deficit is rising, some argue. But jobs are more important, others say. Both are true. The distinction that's often being missed is between the public's short-term and long-term concerns.
There's no question the economy is a much higher priority than the national debt and the budget deficit for the public right now. Let's take, for example, the CBS News/New York Times poll released yesterday. A plurality (38 percent) say the economy and jobs are the most important problem facing the country today, followed by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (13 percent), heath care (6 percent), the budget deficit/national debt (5 percent) and the Gulf oil spill (also 5 percent).
Other surveys have found similar results, and that's not surprising. In April, Gallup found one in five Americans fear losing their job over the next year.
But the public also thinks the deficit could be the most important problem in the future. When Gallup asked what the most important problem might be 25 years from now, the most popular answer given was the federal budget deficit (14 percent), closely followed by the economy and the environment (both 11 percent). That's the first time the deficit has led the list, and the first time it's drawn more than 5 percent responses, according to Gallup.
Among policymakers, of course, the debate over the past several weeks has been whether the federal government needs to keep spending to stimulate the economy or should start pulling back to control the deficit. Both sides are treating it as an either-or choice, and citing surveys to prove their point.
Yet a number of economists and policymakers have argued that there's no contradiction between the two choices, and that we could take steps to control the long-term fiscal problem while continuing a stimulus plan now. The surveys do show that there's a difference in the public's perception of the biggest problem now (the economy) and what could be the biggest problem in the future, our unsustainable federal budget. Both of those problems are very real and the fact that the public sees both of them as real could be a huge asset for policymakers as they grapple with solutions.
Wednesday, July 14th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
Facts are stubborn things, John Adams once declared. But so, apparently, are people.
There's been a lot of attention this week to research suggesting, as the Boston Globe put it, that "facts don't necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite." Studies show people with strong partisan views not only reject conflicting information but are likely to hold onto their misconceptions even more strongly. (Here's a roundup of commentary on this point).
This research isn't new, but one reason why it may resonate is the concern among many commentators that people are more prone to getting their information from sources that fit their preconceptions the quality Stephen Colbert famously defined as "truthiness." Even setting that aside, surveys continue to show wide gaps in how Republicans and Democrats perceive problems. That includes our own Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, which found Republicans getting significantly more anxious about global affairs, even as Democrats' belief that the U.S. was "on the right track" jumped 41 points.
So is it hopeless to even try to give people authenticated facts and balanced information to consider as they make decisions in politics? Should journalists and good government groups who try to promote better understanding of issues just throw in the towel?
First off, not everyone is a political partisan, and even those with strong political views may not hold them on every subject. Most Americans aren't up to speed on every problem facing the nation. How could they be? There's a flood of information out there, but only so much time in the day to keep up with the topics you're interested in, much less everything else.
Secondly, clearly people do change their minds as they get more information. Surveys show this time and again: on equal opportunity for women, on gay rights, on race relations, the war in Iraq, even offshore drilling, there have been huge shifts in public opinion as people have absorbed new ideas and had time to think about them. Sometimes it happens quickly; more often the process can take time, years or even decades. But there's no doubt that it happens.
Friday, July 9th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
When it comes to complicated problems, like energy and climate, public thinking goes through a "learning curve." The learning curve runs through several stages, from initially learning about an issue to "working through" the different alternatives and finally to a resolution, according to Public Agenda's founder, Dan Yankelovich. This can be a long process, and there are a lot of potential hurdles that can block progress. Scientists and policymakers, in particular, often believe that more information is the answer, but information is only one element in public thinking.
The hardest part of this process is the middle stage of "working through," where the public weighs a particular problem against other priorities, and various options to solving it against each other. This takes time, and there are a lot of potential roadblocks, like wishful thinking, mistrust, a lack of urgency, and a lack of clear alternatives.
On energy, the public is certainly wrestling with a lack of knowledge, but the question of whether climate change is real or not is only a piece of that puzzle. Four in 10 Americans can't name a fossil fuel, and even more can't name a renewable energy source. People overestimate the amount of oil we have domestically and the amount of energy we get from renewables.
So even if Americans believe we need to overhaul our energy policy and surveys show they do they're hampered in dealing with the options to making that change happen. The decisions needed to change our energy mix require serious tradeoffs based on economics, technology and politics. Without key facts and clear choices, the public can't judge what's realistic and what's not, and that's bound to hamper constructive, practical decision making.
There are good reasons to be skeptical of whether heat waves actually change the public's sense of urgency on global warming. But even if a hot spell made the problem more urgent for the public, without better ways of working through the choices, people could still be lukewarm when it comes to buying into practical solutions.
Wednesday, July 7th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
We've got a recession to fight in the short term and a national debt that will reach unsustainable levels in the longer term.
Both of these problems absolutely have to be dealt with. There's a wide range of views on how to do that (the Washington Post's Ezra Klein tried to map this debate this morning). There are those who argue that there's room to do both short-term stimulus and long-term debt reduction, including Paul Krugman and David Walker. And even the Congressional Budget Office says there's "no intrinsic contradiction" between the two goals.
Friday, July 2nd, 2010 | Scott Bittle
Values and choices.
That's what so many of the problems facing the nation come down to, and on this Fourth of July weekend, it's worth thinking about what that means and why our public debate so often veers away from that.
Consider some of the challenges we face:
- The latest long-term projections for the federal budget range from what one magazine called the "improbable" to the truly disastrous. It's a good thing those aren't our only choices. The budget debate (click here to see video of our Washington, D.C., panel discussion on this issue) is only going to get fiercer as policy leaders start edging closer to dealing with the problems of health care costs and an aging population that are driving our long-term fiscal problems. But there are practical solutions to this problem, no matter whether you're coming at this from a liberal perspective, a conservative one, or anything in between.
- Immigration reform, the subject of a major speech this week by President Obama, is another problem that's debated fiercely but stalled as far as coming to solutions. Public Agenda's own research shows that immigrants "buy in" to American values and society, but their perceptions of some of the problems can be significantly different from those of native-born Americans.
- The Gulf oil spill is still gushing, and Congress is still only creeping toward changes on energy and climate policy. The fundamental challenge is that the world needs both more energy and cleaner energy. There are ways of making that happen, but it requires all of us to think about what our options really are, and what we're willing to do to get there.
- On education, we face decisions about how we give students the support they need to turn around our nation's dismal college completion rate. In public schools, we have equally tough decisions about how to hire and keep the best possible teachers.
Depressing thoughts for a holiday weekend? Not at all. There are practical options available to solve all these problems. But citizens need to think about what's important to them, and consider the tradeoffs inherent in making solutions stick. Policymakers need to consider how the public thinks about these social issues, and what they need to move up the "learning curve" and make informed choices.
And, after all, the public making its own decisions is what the Fourth of July is all about.
Monday, June 28th, 2010 | Francie Grace
There's never been a better chance to step up as an active citizen and join the deliberation on the serious issues we face as a nation. Friends of Public Agenda are invited to join us on Wednesday, June 30, in Washington for a panel discussion on the national debt, including the findings of our new report, "The Buck Stops Where? D.C. Influencers Talk About The National Debt."
The event, sponsored by Public Agenda and another partner in Our Fiscal Future, the National Academy of Public Administration, will be from 8:30 10:00 a.m., with registration and coffee beginning at 8:00 a.m., at the National Academy of Public Administration, 900 7th Street NW, in the Meeting Level Auditorium.
The speakers at the panel discussion are Scott Bittle, Elaine Kamarck and John Castellani.
Bittle, director of Public Issues Analysis and executive vice president of Public Agenda, will talk about the findings and policymaking implications of "The Buck Stops Where?," done for the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation as part of the Choosing Our Fiscal Future initiative. Bittle has written extensively on this subject and is co-author, with Jean Johnson, of "Where Does The Money Go? Your Guided Tour To The Federal Budget Crisis" (2008), which is to be reissued in January with updates based on the current fiscal situation.
Karmarck is on the faculty of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. She was a White House advisor to President Clinton from 1993-1997, and is the author of "The End of Government As We Know It: Policy Implementation in the 21st Century" and "Primary Politics: How Presidential Candidates Have Shaped the Modern Nominating System."
Castellani is the president and CEO of the Business Roundtable. He frequently provides news commentary on business and public policy issues, and has appeared on programs including NBCs "Meet the Press," PBS' "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer," Fox News Channel's "Special Report," and CNBC's "Street Signs."
Seating for "The Buck Stops Where?" panel discussion is limited; please RSVP in advance to OurFiscalFuture@napawash.org. For questions, please call 202-204-3653. And to learn more about this problem, check out our research and Our Fiscal Future, on the Web, Twitter, Facebook and Flickr.
Monday, June 28th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
If anything comes through loud and clear about Saturday's America Speaks National Town Meeting on the federal budget, it's this: the American people can still grapple with complicated, even daunting, issues, and come to solid conclusions.
After last year's rough-and-tumble town hall meetings on health care, some people may have doubted whether civil discussion of complicated issues is even possible anymore. Yet some 3,500 people from all walks of life took time out on a weekend to spend more than six hours talking about the federal budget. The topic's not easy, and neither are the solutions.
Forums in 19 cities around the country came together, discussed the problem in a civil manner, and wrestled with no less than 42 options for addressing our long-term budget problems. They came up with some fascinating conclusions, such as:
- Raise the limit on taxable (Social Security) earnings so it covers 90% of total earnings.
- Reduce spending on health care and non-defense discretionary spending by at least 5%
- Raise tax rates on corporate income and those earning more than $1 million
- Raise the age for receiving full Social Security benefits to 69
- Reduce defense spending by 10% 15%
- Create carbon and securities-transaction taxes
You can find out more about the national town meetings here. The event was organized by America Speaks, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, and funded by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the W.K. Kellogg Foundation. (The MacArthur Foundation is also funding Our Fiscal Future).
So civil discussion is possible but it does have to be structured. The "open-mike night" atmosphere of many public forums can easily turn into just a way to express anger, without any discussion of solutions. In the public engagement approach used by Public Agenda, as well as the related strategies used by America Speaks and other groups, deliberative forums are designed to let people weigh the costs and tradeoffs behind each option, and make informed choices between them.
The National Town Meeting shows we can still have a productive discussion, even on the toughest issues and that's what we're going to need, if we're going to solve our budget problems in a way that lets us both pay our bills and preserve our values.
Friday, June 25th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
Nearly all Americans think energy policy is broken, with nine in 10 who say it needs either "fundamental changes" or should be "completely rebuilt," according to a new CBS/New York Times survey. Clearly, there's a consensus that change is needed.
But what kind of change? In the same survey, 59 percent said it was at least "somewhat likely" that the United States will develop an alternative to oil within the next 25 years. But half (51 percent) said they would oppose raising gas taxes to pay for developing renewable energy, rising to 65 percent when a tax of $1 per gallon was mentioned.
The poll results are not that different from what Public Agenda found in our Energy Learning Curve public opinion research, which revealed a great deal of consensus on solutions, and at the same time, a strong sense that anything that increases the cost of driving is off the table for the public.
The challenge for leaders will be how to move the public from supporting change to backing practical steps to make it happen. Increasing the cost of driving isn't the only option for changing how we get energy, but all the options require choices on both technology and economics. The CBS/Times survey shows one bargain the public isn't willing to make. Now we have to find the bargains that will fly.
To learn more about the choices we face, check out Who Turned Out The Lights? Your Guided Tour To The Energy Crisis and join the discussion on Facebook and on @TheEnergyBook, our energy feed on Twitter.
06.17 Real Change On Energy
Thursday, June 17th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
In his first Oval Office speech, President Obama tried to channel frustration over the Gulf oil spill into momentum for changing U.S. energy policy, calling for new action to promote clean energy and reduce dependence on foreign oil. The president compared changing the nation's energy use to the buildup for World War II, or the drive to put a man on the moon.
In a recent blog posting, I observed that in those cases the public may however have had a much firmer grasp of both the challenge and the choices facing the nation. The public has a "Learning Curve" to climb on complicated issues, as people work through what they think and what they're willing to do. Americans can do this on energy as they have before on many other thorny issues, but before we do, there are a couple of challenges to get past.
Rescuing oiled pelicans in Barataria Bay, La. (U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class John Miller)
One is that significant numbers of Americans lack key information about how we use energy. Four in 10, we've found on our surveys, can't name a fossil fuel, and roughly half can't name a renewable energy source. Although most people are aware that it'll take a while for alternative energy to really take hold, most also overestimate how much renewable energy we use now.
In fact, the United States gets 80 percent of its energy from fossil fuels and the government's own projections say we'll still get getting 80 percent of our energy from fossil fuels in 2030, unless we take steps to change.
The second challenge is helping the public grasp the choices we face. The Deepwater spill (USCG photo, above: rescuing oiled pelicans in Barataria Bay, La.) has made the risks and tradeoffs involved in offshore drilling abundantly clear. But the tradeoffs involved in moving away from oil are more complicated.
Do we want to continue putting something liquid in our tanks, like biofuels or natural gas? Do we want to move to electric cars? Are we willing to pay more to do either? Any of these alternatives require big changes after all, there are 250 million motor vehicles in the U.S., and almost all of them run on oil.
These are choices that divide and even flummox the experts. But making choices doesn't have to be left to the experts and on this issue, more than most, it's the public that has to choose. To learn more about the choices we face, check out Who Turned Out The Lights? Your Guide To The Energy Crisis and join the discussion on Facebook and on @TheEnergyBook, our energy feed on Twitter.
Thursday, June 17th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce reported this week that the number of jobs requiring an associates' degree or more will grow faster than the pool of qualified people, to the tune of a three-million-worker shortfall by 2018. People who drop out, or even those with just a high school education, will increasingly find themselves left behind in the marketplace, the center said.
Yet Public Agenda's research has found one reason for the nation's dismal college completion rate is the difficult juggling act so many students have to perform between work, school and family responsibilities. In our survey of young adults, With Their Whole Lives Ahead of Them, we found more than half of those who left higher ed before completing a degree say that the "need to work and make money" while attending classes is the major reason they left.
Balancing work and school was an even bigger barrier than finding money for tuition. In fact, those who dropped out are almost twice as likely to cite problems juggling work and school as their main problem as they are to blame tuition bills (54 percent to 31 percent).
And those who do drop out may not fully realize the impact that failing to get a degree will have on their future. As a group they are less likely to "strongly agree" that their parents always instilled in them the importance of college, that people who have a college degree make more money and that they would still go to college if they knew they could get a good job without a degree.
So what do these young people say would help? Making college more convenient to those on busy schedules, such as offering evening and weekend classes, and helping part-time students get financial aid. Find out more about the report, prepared for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.