Thursday, July 22nd, 2010 | Scott Bittle
The drive for common core education standards is gaining steam, with 26 states and the District of Columbia already signed up. Public Agenda's research has found Americans like the idea of standards but low standards are not their most pressing concern about schools.
More states are expected to sign up for the standards in English and math, which are a key part of the Obama administration's "race to the top" program and also have strong backing from the nation's governors and chief school officers. But the idea still causes intense debate among educators and others.
In our research, Public Agenda has consistently found that the public supports the idea of standards, and has for some time. In our most recent look at this, our "Are We Beginning to See the Light?" survey on math and science education, strong majorities of both parents and the public said establishing a national curriculum would help improve math education (about half of both groups) said it would help "a lot."
It's also important to note that curriculum and standards are not what's bothering parents and the public most about schools. When participants in our math and science education survey were asked about the most pressing problem facing local high schools, some 63 percent of parents and 56 percent of the public cited "social problems and kids who misbehave." Only about three in 10 cited "low academic standards and outdated curricula."
National standards may well be a major step forward for improving American schools but the public sees safe and orderly schools as a pressing concern, and that deserves to be addressed as well.
Editor's note: This post has been edited to correct the number of states that have adopted the common core standards; as of July 23, the count is 26 states and the District of Columbia.
Tuesday, July 20th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
For the first time, the Pew Research Center survey reports reducing the deficit is a higher priority than spending to stimulate the economy but that may say more about public attitudes toward the stimulus than it does about the deficit.
As recently as February, the Pew survey found the public evenly split on reducing the deficit versus spending more to help the economy (47 percent each). Now the deficit comes out ahead, 51 percent to 40 percent.
Reducing the deficit also beats out cutting taxes by a similar margin (51 percent to 41 percent).
Yet as we've noted before, surveys show the economy consistently beats out the deficit (and everything else for that matter) as the public's biggest concern. So what's the deal? We think the answer lies in the other big takeaway in this survey, headlined "Gov't Economic Policies Seen as Boon for Banks and Big Business, Not Middle Class or Poor." As Pew puts it:
The public sees clear winners and losers from the economic policies the government has implemented since the recession of 2008. Most Americans say these policies have helped large banks, large corporations and the wealthy, while providing little or no help for the poor, the middle class or small businesses.
Strong majorities say the government has done a "great deal" or a "fair amount" to help banks (74 percent), large corporations (70 percent) and the wealthy (57 percent). And majorities also say that the government has helped other groups "not too much" or "not at all", like small business (68 percent), middle-class people (68 percent) and poor people (64 percent).
Add to that the fact that relatively few people surveyed by Pew say they've seen direct effects from the stimulus. Two-thirds say it's increased the budget deficit, but only 43 percent say they believe it has led to improvements in roads, bridges and other infrastructure in their area. A mere one-third say the stimulus helped keep unemployment from getting even worse, and 29 percent say it helped state and local governments avoid layoffs and budget cuts.
Economists can and do argue that this isn't an either/or choice; that the nation can both spend more now to push the economy and make progress on its long-term budget problems. Given perceptions like this, however, it's no surprise that the public is skeptical.
Thursday, July 15th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
The nation's governors vowed this week to tackle America's dismal college completion rate and Public Agenda's work points to some of the hurdles and possible solutions in getting more students across the finish line.
At the National Governors' Association conference, the organization unveiled "Complete to Compete," a new effort to build common metrics and develop "best practices" for states to improve completion rates. Right now, only 20 percent of students at two-year colleges finish in three years, and 40 percent of those at four-year schools finish in six years.
One thing Public Agenda's research shows pretty clearly is that many of the common views about why students don't finish college don't hold up. The image of the college student for many people is still the full-timer who's supported by their parents. But in fact, our "With Their Whole Lives Ahead of Them" survey finds that most students leave college because they're working to support themselves and attend school at the same time. Students who drop out are almost twice as likely to cite problems juggling work and school as their main problem as they are to blame tuition bills (54 percent to 31 percent).
And what do students say would help? Flexibility. Eight in 10 young adults we surveyed who did not complete college supported making it possible for part-time students to be eligible for more financial aid and offering more courses in the evening and on weekends, to fit around their work schedules.
But college completion touches on a host of challenges about how higher education could operate better. Public Agenda is currently working in Texas and Arizona to help state leaders engage such critical stakeholders as college students, presidents and faculty as part of the Lumina Foundation's efforts to enhance higher education productivity in order to increase completion while controlling costs.
Wednesday, July 14th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
There's been a lot written in the media and the blogosphere about surveys on whether the public is more worried about the economy or the federal deficit and most of what's written only sees half the story.
Public concern about the deficit is rising, some argue. But jobs are more important, others say. Both are true. The distinction that's often being missed is between the public's short-term and long-term concerns.
There's no question the economy is a much higher priority than the national debt and the budget deficit for the public right now. Let's take, for example, the CBS News/New York Times poll released yesterday. A plurality (38 percent) say the economy and jobs are the most important problem facing the country today, followed by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (13 percent), heath care (6 percent), the budget deficit/national debt (5 percent) and the Gulf oil spill (also 5 percent).
Other surveys have found similar results, and that's not surprising. In April, Gallup found one in five Americans fear losing their job over the next year.
But the public also thinks the deficit could be the most important problem in the future. When Gallup asked what the most important problem might be 25 years from now, the most popular answer given was the federal budget deficit (14 percent), closely followed by the economy and the environment (both 11 percent). That's the first time the deficit has led the list, and the first time it's drawn more than 5 percent responses, according to Gallup.
Among policymakers, of course, the debate over the past several weeks has been whether the federal government needs to keep spending to stimulate the economy or should start pulling back to control the deficit. Both sides are treating it as an either-or choice, and citing surveys to prove their point.
Yet a number of economists and policymakers have argued that there's no contradiction between the two choices, and that we could take steps to control the long-term fiscal problem while continuing a stimulus plan now. The surveys do show that there's a difference in the public's perception of the biggest problem now (the economy) and what could be the biggest problem in the future, our unsustainable federal budget. Both of those problems are very real and the fact that the public sees both of them as real could be a huge asset for policymakers as they grapple with solutions.
Wednesday, July 14th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
Facts are stubborn things, John Adams once declared. But so, apparently, are people.
There's been a lot of attention this week to research suggesting, as the Boston Globe put it, that "facts don't necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite." Studies show people with strong partisan views not only reject conflicting information but are likely to hold onto their misconceptions even more strongly. (Here's a roundup of commentary on this point).
This research isn't new, but one reason why it may resonate is the concern among many commentators that people are more prone to getting their information from sources that fit their preconceptions the quality Stephen Colbert famously defined as "truthiness." Even setting that aside, surveys continue to show wide gaps in how Republicans and Democrats perceive problems. That includes our own Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, which found Republicans getting significantly more anxious about global affairs, even as Democrats' belief that the U.S. was "on the right track" jumped 41 points.
So is it hopeless to even try to give people authenticated facts and balanced information to consider as they make decisions in politics? Should journalists and good government groups who try to promote better understanding of issues just throw in the towel?
First off, not everyone is a political partisan, and even those with strong political views may not hold them on every subject. Most Americans aren't up to speed on every problem facing the nation. How could they be? There's a flood of information out there, but only so much time in the day to keep up with the topics you're interested in, much less everything else.
Secondly, clearly people do change their minds as they get more information. Surveys show this time and again: on equal opportunity for women, on gay rights, on race relations, the war in Iraq, even offshore drilling, there have been huge shifts in public opinion as people have absorbed new ideas and had time to think about them. Sometimes it happens quickly; more often the process can take time, years or even decades. But there's no doubt that it happens.
Friday, July 9th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
This week's triple-digit heat wave has raised both temperatures and hopes among climate activists that this can move public opinion about global warming just as climate skeptics grasped onto last winter's "snowpocalypse" as a talking point. From our point of view, what policymakers and activists really need is a better reading on the public, not a better reading on the thermometer.
When it comes to complicated problems, like energy and climate, public thinking goes through a "learning curve." The learning curve runs through several stages, from initially learning about an issue to "working through" the different alternatives and finally to a resolution, according to Public Agenda's founder, Dan Yankelovich. This can be a long process, and there are a lot of potential hurdles that can block progress. Scientists and policymakers, in particular, often believe that more information is the answer, but information is only one element in public thinking.
The hardest part of this process is the middle stage of "working through," where the public weighs a particular problem against other priorities, and various options to solving it against each other. This takes time, and there are a lot of potential roadblocks, like wishful thinking, mistrust, a lack of urgency, and a lack of clear alternatives.
On energy, the public is certainly wrestling with a lack of knowledge, but the question of whether climate change is real or not is only a piece of that puzzle. Four in 10 Americans can't name a fossil fuel, and even more can't name a renewable energy source. People overestimate the amount of oil we have domestically and the amount of energy we get from renewables.
So even if Americans believe we need to overhaul our energy policy and surveys show they do they're hampered in dealing with the options to making that change happen. The decisions needed to change our energy mix require serious tradeoffs based on economics, technology and politics. Without key facts and clear choices, the public can't judge what's realistic and what's not, and that's bound to hamper constructive, practical decision making.
There are good reasons to be skeptical of whether heat waves actually change the public's sense of urgency on global warming. But even if a hot spell made the problem more urgent for the public, without better ways of working through the choices, people could still be lukewarm when it comes to buying into practical solutions.
Wednesday, July 7th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
The opinion writers continue to debate whether the country needs more economic stimulus or more budget-cutting this "opinionator" faceoff in the New York Times is the latest contribution. But the more the commentators talk, the more confusing this may become for the rest of us.
We've got a recession to fight in the short term and a national debt that will reach unsustainable levels in the longer term.
Both of these problems absolutely have to be dealt with. There's a wide range of views on how to do that (the Washington Post's Ezra Klein tried to map this debate this morning). There are those who argue that there's room to do both short-term stimulus and long-term debt reduction, including Paul Krugman and David Walker. And even the Congressional Budget Office says there's "no intrinsic contradiction" between the two goals.
Friday, July 2nd, 2010 | Scott Bittle
Values and choices.
That's what so many of the problems facing the nation come down to, and on this Fourth of July weekend, it's worth thinking about what that means and why our public debate so often veers away from that.
Consider some of the challenges we face:
- The latest long-term projections for the federal budget range from what one magazine called the "improbable" to the truly disastrous. It's a good thing those aren't our only choices. The budget debate (click here to see video of our Washington, D.C., panel discussion on this issue) is only going to get fiercer as policy leaders start edging closer to dealing with the problems of health care costs and an aging population that are driving our long-term fiscal problems. But there are practical solutions to this problem, no matter whether you're coming at this from a liberal perspective, a conservative one, or anything in between.
- Immigration reform, the subject of a major speech this week by President Obama, is another problem that's debated fiercely but stalled as far as coming to solutions. Public Agenda's own research shows that immigrants "buy in" to American values and society, but their perceptions of some of the problems can be significantly different from those of native-born Americans.
- The Gulf oil spill is still gushing, and Congress is still only creeping toward changes on energy and climate policy. The fundamental challenge is that the world needs both more energy and cleaner energy. There are ways of making that happen, but it requires all of us to think about what our options really are, and what we're willing to do to get there.
- On education, we face decisions about how we give students the support they need to turn around our nation's dismal college completion rate. In public schools, we have equally tough decisions about how to hire and keep the best possible teachers.
Depressing thoughts for a holiday weekend? Not at all. There are practical options available to solve all these problems. But citizens need to think about what's important to them, and consider the tradeoffs inherent in making solutions stick. Policymakers need to consider how the public thinks about these social issues, and what they need to move up the "learning curve" and make informed choices.
And, after all, the public making its own decisions is what the Fourth of July is all about.
Monday, June 28th, 2010 | Francie Grace
There's never been a better chance to step up as an active citizen and join the deliberation on the serious issues we face as a nation. Friends of Public Agenda are invited to join us on Wednesday, June 30, in Washington for a panel discussion on the national debt, including the findings of our new report, "The Buck Stops Where? D.C. Influencers Talk About The National Debt."
The event, sponsored by Public Agenda and another partner in Our Fiscal Future, the National Academy of Public Administration, will be from 8:30 10:00 a.m., with registration and coffee beginning at 8:00 a.m., at the National Academy of Public Administration, 900 7th Street NW, in the Meeting Level Auditorium.
The speakers at the panel discussion are Scott Bittle, Elaine Kamarck and John Castellani.
Bittle, director of Public Issues Analysis and executive vice president of Public Agenda, will talk about the findings and policymaking implications of "The Buck Stops Where?," done for the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation as part of the Choosing Our Fiscal Future initiative. Bittle has written extensively on this subject and is co-author, with Jean Johnson, of "Where Does The Money Go? Your Guided Tour To The Federal Budget Crisis" (2008), which is to be reissued in January with updates based on the current fiscal situation.
Karmarck is on the faculty of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. She was a White House advisor to President Clinton from 1993-1997, and is the author of "The End of Government As We Know It: Policy Implementation in the 21st Century" and "Primary Politics: How Presidential Candidates Have Shaped the Modern Nominating System."
Castellani is the president and CEO of the Business Roundtable. He frequently provides news commentary on business and public policy issues, and has appeared on programs including NBCs "Meet the Press," PBS' "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer," Fox News Channel's "Special Report," and CNBC's "Street Signs."
Seating for "The Buck Stops Where?" panel discussion is limited; please RSVP in advance to OurFiscalFuture@napawash.org. For questions, please call 202-204-3653. And to learn more about this problem, check out our research and Our Fiscal Future, on the Web, Twitter, Facebook and Flickr.
Monday, June 28th, 2010 | Scott Bittle
If anything comes through loud and clear about Saturday's America Speaks National Town Meeting on the federal budget, it's this: the American people can still grapple with complicated, even daunting, issues, and come to solid conclusions.
After last year's rough-and-tumble town hall meetings on health care, some people may have doubted whether civil discussion of complicated issues is even possible anymore. Yet some 3,500 people from all walks of life took time out on a weekend to spend more than six hours talking about the federal budget. The topic's not easy, and neither are the solutions.
Forums in 19 cities around the country came together, discussed the problem in a civil manner, and wrestled with no less than 42 options for addressing our long-term budget problems. They came up with some fascinating conclusions, such as:
- Raise the limit on taxable (Social Security) earnings so it covers 90% of total earnings.
- Reduce spending on health care and non-defense discretionary spending by at least 5%
- Raise tax rates on corporate income and those earning more than $1 million
- Raise the age for receiving full Social Security benefits to 69
- Reduce defense spending by 10% 15%
- Create carbon and securities-transaction taxes
You can find out more about the national town meetings here. The event was organized by America Speaks, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, and funded by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the W.K. Kellogg Foundation. (The MacArthur Foundation is also funding Our Fiscal Future).
So civil discussion is possible but it does have to be structured. The "open-mike night" atmosphere of many public forums can easily turn into just a way to express anger, without any discussion of solutions. In the public engagement approach used by Public Agenda, as well as the related strategies used by America Speaks and other groups, deliberative forums are designed to let people weigh the costs and tradeoffs behind each option, and make informed choices between them.
The National Town Meeting shows we can still have a productive discussion, even on the toughest issues and that's what we're going to need, if we're going to solve our budget problems in a way that lets us both pay our bills and preserve our values.