The Next President's First Foreign Policy Challenge:
Restoring Public Confidence

By Public Agenda's Ruth A. Wooden and Scott Bittle

GOP presidential candidate John McCain, campaigning at the University of Denver.

We are now witnessing the results of the overwhelming loss of public trust in an Administration's foreign policy. If ever there were any doubts about the necessity of maintaining a basic level of public support for an administration's foreign policy, the current powerlessness of the Bush Administration should be a lesson learned for future administrations.

But the lack of public trust in our nation's foreign policy isn't just the Bush Administration's own ball and chain. It is a major constraint to which the next administration will also be tethered.

"How much do you trust our government to tell the public the truth about our relations with other countries?" According to the Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, more than half of the American public says not too much (26 percent) or not at all (26 percent). That stunning lack of trust may be one of the biggest obstacles the new president will face in January 2009. Fifty-seven percent of Americans say it is at least partially justified to say that the United States is only concerned with its own interests and disregards the interests of other counties. These attitudes will not be different come January simply because "change," in whatever form, comes to the Oval Office.

It is not just that the American public thinks our nation's relations with the rest of the world are on the wrong track (nearly two-thirds say this), but the public also believes we are perceived internationally to be "arrogant" (73 percent) and "a bully" (60 percent). Over the past three years, the public's perception of whether or not the government can do much of anything to improve a host of foreign policy issues has eroded significantly, including on key challenges such as establishing good relations with moderate Muslims, preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction, decreasing our dependence on other countries for our supply of energy and slowing illegal immigration to the United States. On some vitally important issues, like maintaining a stable energy supply, protecting American jobs and stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, strong majorities question whether solving them is even realistic.

These are not attitudes that can be turned around easily, even if the next president pursues policies more heavily weighted toward diplomacy and building international partnerships, as both of the candidates have promised. But there are several things the next President can do to rebuild the public's trust on foreign policy that will contribute to the wider success of a new administration, both on international and domestic policy fronts.

First, listen to the priorities of the American public – which are sometimes very different from those of the policy elite. According to the CFPI research, there are a number of actions that have consistently rated very high on the public's priorities for U.S. foreign policy. At the top of the list, three quarters (75 percent) say preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and cooperating with other countries on problems like the environment or control of diseases should be very important. Almost as many say assisting countries in developing clean water supplies (74 percent) and helping other countries when they are struck by natural disasters (73 percent) should be very important to U.S. foreign policy. When it comes to the strategies that will improve U.S. security, the public has moved rather quickly to see our need for energy independence as the top priority.

A president who wants to rebuild public trust will put these priorities at the top of the new administration's list – even though some of them, like disaster relief, are rarely priorities for foreign policy experts. At the very bottom of the public's list is "actively creating democracies in other countries." But for those who think Americans are turning isolationist, think again. The second lowest priority for Americans is "minding our own business and getting less involved with global issues."

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, visiting U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

The second, but equally important task for the next Administration in rebuilding trust is to help the American public think through many of the international issues on which it remains unsure. International trade is a prime example of where the public is confused and uncertain. A staggering 41 percent say they are unsure who benefits more from international trade, the United States or other countries, while 42 percent say other countries benefit more and a mere 14 percent think our nation benefits more.

The link between global poverty and terrorism is another unresolved question for the public. Fifty-one percent say that if there is less poverty in the world there will be less terrorism, but 46 percent say no. There are many such unresolved questions in the public mind and a new President can truly show leadership by publicly discussing the pros and cons and focusing leaders and citizens alike on the real, tough choices that have to be made.

Many policy experts still hold that public opinion on foreign policy is not particularly important, since Americans generally give deference to their leaders on how to proceed. But once public disapproval on foreign policy surpasses a certain threshold level, the negative implications are broad and deep. We now see the political and international implications of ignoring public opinion.

This kind of crisis of public confidence occurred during the Vietnam War and it is happening again now. For a variety of reasons, the public's skepticism of government efficacy did not return to prior levels after the Vietnam War ended, and it won't improve quickly with the election of a new Administration this year. It is sad that we have to state the obvious, but after the last eight years, here it is: On foreign policy, leadership means listening and progress requires public trust.

Ruth A. Wooden is President of Public Agenda and Scott Bittle is Executive Vice President for Public Issues Analysis. Public Agenda, which is nonpartisan and nonprofit, produces the Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, in partnership with the journal Foreign Affairs.