Public Agenda Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index

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Iraq: Relatively Less Important

Since we began the Foreign Policy Index in 2005, the Iraq war has been the public’s central concern and driving anxiety, so strong that it’s had a spillover effect on seemingly unrelated problems. Now that the public seems to be shifting focus to the economy, and the situation in Iraq seems less out-of-control, we’re seeing the effects of this shift on other questions as well.

As we noted in the introduction, Iraq has been getting less media attention overall, and the surge has produced more positive news coverage. There’s been some improvement in public ratings on Iraq, but the overall picture remains quite negative. About 6 in 10 (62 percent) give the United States a grade of “C” or less on meeting our objectives in Iraq, with 40 percent giving flatly failing “D” or “F” grades. That’s a nine-point decline in grades of “C” or worse and essentially puts grades where they were in the fall of 2006. Fewer say there’s “not much” the United States can do to create a democratic Iraq (44 percent, down seven points from six months ago) or to control the violence there (42 percent, also down seven points).

But public views remain skeptical on many fundamental questions.

Only 15 percent, for example, think the United States can do “a lot” in either building democracy or controlling violence in Iraq.
Half don’t think the government is being truthful about the war.
Nearly two-thirds want to withdraw, and only 3 in 10 say we should stay in Iraq “as long as it takes to stabilize the country.” Some 53 percent say we should withdraw even if it means “more violence and more Iraqi casualties.”
Majorities, 56 percent, say we have a moral obligation to the Iraqi people, but that’s a four-point decline from a year ago.
Almost 6 in 10 don’t believe our safety from terrorism depends on Iraq, and 47 percent worry “a lot” that the war is requiring so much time and money that it is distracting us from other threats in the world.

Attitudes about the war in Afghanistan, which gets much less media coverage, are less intensely negative than on Iraq. Only 15 percent think the United States can do “a lot” about creating a stable Afghanistan, and roughly the same number give “A” or “B” grades for succeeding in meeting our objectives there as for Iraq (28 percent for Afghanistan compared to 31 percent in Iraq). But fewer say there’s “not much” to be done (36 percent, compared to 44 percent in Iraq), and fewer give flatly failing “D” or “F” grades (31 percent compared with 40 percent for Iraq).

The political tumult and ongoing struggle with al Qaeda in Pakistan ranks much lower on the public’s radar, but there is considerable skepticism about our efforts there. Four in ten say there’s “not much” the United States can do about stopping anti-American terrorists in Pakistan. But the public isn’t nearly as tuned into the Pakistan situation as they are on Iraq, with nearly 1 in 5 (18 percent) saying they don’t know enough to give the United States a grade for working with the government of Pakistan to hunt down anti-American terrorists.

The fact that Iraq both seems less out-of-control and gets less media attention may also be affecting the public’s overall sense of danger in the world. Broadly speaking, 74 percent tell us they think the world is becoming more dangerous for the United States and the American people. But as noted in the introduction, there’s been a change in the intensity of that feeling, with a seven-point decline in those who view the world as becoming “much more dangerous.”

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