Public Agenda Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index

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Introduction: Energy, Economy New Focal Points

It’s been more than 15 years since Bill Clinton’s campaign advisors confidently declared “it’s the economy, stupid,” to sum up the public’s mood of the moment. For the past few years, foreign policy and the war in Iraq in particular have been at the forefront of public concern. But the economy is reasserting itself as a priority—and economic concerns are shaping how the public views foreign policy.

The most dramatic example of this is the public’s worry about the cost of energy. Fully 7 in 10 say they worry “a lot” about the rise in the cost of energy, a 16-point jump from six months ago. But for the public, economics and security are tied together on this issue. Becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy is now the public’s first choice as a national security strategy, with 6 in 10 saying it would do “a great deal” to make the country more secure.

This is not to say that the Iraq war no longer matters to the public. It does and is still a central concern. But there has been a distinct change in the public’s emphasis. When asked to volunteer the top foreign policy problem facing the United States, Iraq still comes out on top in our survey. But the number who say this has fallen dramatically—a year ago, 29 percent said Iraq was the biggest problem, compared with 19 percent now. That’s a 10-point drop. A year ago, the economy barely registered at three percent as a foreign policy concern. Now 11 percent say the economy’s the biggest international problem—on par with terrorism at 10 percent.

In the shift toward economics, the Iraq war is getting less attention in the media, and in the wake of the “surge,” more of the coverage it’s getting has been positive.1 As a result, the Iraq situation seems to appear more under control and possibly less threatening for the public. Attitudes about the war remain negative by substantial margins. But Republicans, in particular, are giving the war effort better grades. In any case, nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of the public still wants to withdraw, and more than 6 in 10 give the government a grade of “C” or worse for its conduct of the war.

Since we have conducted this survey, Iraq has had a spillover effect onto other, seemingly unrelated questions. Throughout 2007, the public reported serious concern about the war in Iraq and widespread dissatisfaction with foreign policy. The shift in emphasis to economic worries, along with comparative improvement in attitudes on Iraq has brought about something of a small rebound on other foreign policy issues. Very likely this is more a matter of salience, with domestic economics taking up more of the public’s attention, than greater confidence in the world situation. Also, the focus on the presidential campaign, with the discussion turning to what the next president may do rather than what’s happening now, may have affected public confidence.

So, overall anxiety about foreign policy remains high, but the intensity of that feeling appears more muted. For example, the Foreign Policy Anxiety Indicator stands at 132, a four-point drop from six months ago but still above the 130 reading we started with in the fall of 2006. Of the five questions we use to calculate the indicator, the most significant shift was one of intensity. Slightly fewer say the world is becoming a more dangerous place. Specifically, there was a seven-point decline in those who say it’s “much more dangerous.”

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Near the Tipping Point