Public Agenda Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index

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Energy Independence: Near the Tipping Point

With oil prices at or above record levels, it’s no surprise that public concern about energy has also spiked dramatically. A staggering 70 percent of those surveyed say they worry “a lot” about the rise in the cost of gas and fuel—a 16-point jump. This outpaces any other concern by a wide margin. The next highest “worry,” about casualties in Iraq, is at 56 percent. There’s also been a sharp increase in those who say they worry “a lot” that problems abroad may hurt our supply of oil and raise prices for American consumers.

More importantly, the public strongly makes the connection between energy and national security. That in itself is not new—for several years, the Foreign Policy Index has shown energy independence to be one of the public’s most favored strategies for improving the nation’s security, along with improving the effectiveness of our intelligence operations and tighter controls on illegal immigration. The difference now is that energy has moved to the top, with a seven-point increase in those who think becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy would do “a great deal” to enhance security.

In analyzing the Index, we look for potential “tipping points”—areas where public concern is particularly strong. Generally speaking, the public thinks it doesn’t have as firm a grasp on foreign policy as on domestic issues, so they’re willing to let the professionals handle things—unless events seem seriously off track. A tipping point is reached when a substantial majority is strongly concerned about a problem and also believes the government has the power to address it.

Energy has those elements. In addition to the high numbers who worry “a lot” about the price and supply of fuel, the public gives the government poor grades for its efforts in becoming less dependent on foreign countries. More than three-quarters (77 percent) give the government a “C” or worse in this area, and 53 percent give flatly failing “D” or “F” grades. Some 44 percent also say the government can do “a lot” to achieve less dependence. That’s one of the highest ratings in the Index—although that did slide from 50 percent in the last round of the survey. There was also an increase in those who say it’s “unrealistic” to expect the government to maintain a stable supply of oil at a reasonable price (65 percent). So while the public still thinks it can do something about energy problems, there’s increasing doubt about the prospects for doing it.

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Perceptions of Foreign Policy