Medicare, the national health-insurance plan for the elderly and disabled, often gets lumped in with Social Security in terms of the people it serves, its popularity and its fragile future -- except that it's in much worse shape financially. The program serves 46 million Americans and costs more than $430 billion per year, nearly 13 percent of the federal budget. But current projections say Medicare will be unable to cover its bills by 2029 -- long before Social Security, which should be able to cover its costs until 2037.
Like Social Security, Medicare is up against an increasing demand for its services as the 78 million-strong Baby Boom gradually retires. Unlike Social Security, Medicare also has to cope with the skyrocketing cost of health care. Most budget experts, in fact, say this combination of rising health costs and demographics makes Medicare the biggest financial problem facing the federal government in the long term.
The health care reform law passed in 2010 has significantly improved the outlook for Medicare, according to the annual trustees report (previous to the health care legislation, Medicare's trust fund was projected to be empty by 2017). As part of efforts to overhaul the health care system in general, the law expands the Medicare payroll tax, cuts payments to doctors and hospitals, and implements changes designed to cut overall health care costs.
However, many of these changes require follow-up action by Congress, and if Congress balks at them, Medicare's financial state will get worse.