The American Public And The World After Gitmo

President Obama started making basic changes to U.S. strategy on terrorism today, issuing an executive order this morning to close the detention prison at Guantanamo Bay within one year, bolstering his plan with two other executive orders concerning interrogation practices and detention policies.

With the renewed debate in the news, fresh Gallup numbers show Americans are marginally more opposed to closing Gitmo than in favor of it. Some 35 percent said they're in favor of shutting down the prison, with 45 percent opposed. Meanwhile, CNN, with slightly different question wording, has an even slimmer margin, but with 51 percent in favor of closing it and 47 percent wanting to keep it open.

These new findings are noteworthy for another reason: there are strong signals of public uncertainty. In July 2007, 13 percent gave Gallup a "don't know" response when asked whether the U.S. should close the prison; now 20 percent say they "don't know." (Keep in mind that double-digit "don't know" responses are widely considered to be a warning sign that an issue may not be well understood and that public attitudes may not be stable.) So while at first glance it may seem like the Gallup figures haven't moved remarkably since 2007, the public, in fact, seems to be even less sure than ever about whether to close the controversial prison. And indeed, as said above, the margin between the yes' and no's is becoming slimmer. In CNN's case there has been a clear movement in public feeling towards closing the prison; just 36 percent favored closing it in June 2005, compared with 51 percent now, tipping just past the half-way point.

As always, survey numbers don't mean much without context, and as you look at these figures, we'd suggest three things to keep in mind:

Saliency and trust. Not everything can be on the front burner for the public, and while terrorism was the public's major concern after 9/11, the economy now dominates in surveys. In addition, the public is generally willing to give leaders more leeway on foreign policy and national security than on other matters – unless they believe policy is seriously off track. And for the past few years, the public has harbored some serious doubts about current foreign policy; with majorities saying it's "on the wrong track." (Be sure to look at the last few editions of our Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index for numbers and analyses on that very issue.

Rights of prisoners. Concerning U.S. detention policies specifically, we've found that the public generally believes prisoners captured in the war on terror should have the same legal rights as prisoners of war. Americans also think detainees shouldn't be held indefinitely without being charged and should have access to a lawyer. On the other hand, a 2006 Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll found that most Americans believe suspected terrorists shouldn't be given the same treatment as American citizens or legal immigrants in U.S. courts, although they tend to be more divided on whether their rights should equal those of military personnel or not.

Gitmo may or may not have made the U.S. safer, but the public believes it has hurt our image. Surveys in the past have found half of Americans say Guantanamo has made the U.S. safer, although 45 percent say it hasn't. Even more, they worry that detention and rumors of torture have damaged the U.S. reputation abroad. And 63 percent in our last Foreign Policy Index said America's image abroad is "very important" to national security.

So what implications does this pose for the new Obama administration? Taking it back to the question of trust, the public's "default setting" is to trust the government in foreign policy, and we probably don't have to remind you that the American public has given stronger than average approval ratings to the incoming Obama presidency. On the other hand, the sizeable "don't knows" on this question means public attitudes should be considered unsettled. And that may be the biggest surprise of all to policymakers. Even more than six years after 9/11, the American public still hasn't come to firm conclusions on some fundamental issues regarding how the country should respond to terrorism.