Voter's Survival Kit: Eight Things You Need to Know About Foreign Policy

By Scott Bittle on October 28, 2008

When it comes to foreign policy, most Americans are pretty candid in admitting they don't know all the details. So the public tends to give leaders a lot of leeway on foreign policy, at least unless they feel things are seriously off course. And that's not so surprising. Most people have plenty of personal experience when it comes to making up their mind about problems like the economy, or education, or taxes. Not many have been to Iraq – or for that matter, have not been abroad at all.

For the last several years, Public Agenda's Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index has found high levels of public anxiety about international affairs. Even though most surveys show the economy far outstripping foreign policy as a concern for voters, the next administration is going to face serious international challenges.

So in our continuing effort to sum things up for voters who are trying to catch up with the issues in the last week before the election, we've drawn up eight key points you need to know about America's place in the world. These are adapted from our Voter's Survival Kit, which also provides facts, trends and major options the country could pursue.

Iraq remains a costly, controversial war. According to government estimates, the U.S. has spent about $750 billion on fighting terrorism since September 11, with most of the money going to the war in Iraq. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that there is progress in Iraq; violence against civilians and U.S. troops is down as of summer 2008. Nonetheless, it "remains volatile and dangerous." The U.S. is now spending about $11 billion a month there.

The U.S. has about 140,000 troops in Iraq and another 23,500 in Afghanistan, and the combined operations have strained the U.S. military. In 2008, U.S. Army General Richard Cody testified before Congress that "the current demand for our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan exceeds the sustainable supply and limits our ability to provide ready forces for other contingencies." To meet the demands of fighting the two wars, the military has repeatedly extended tours of duty for active personnel and called on members of the reserve to serve abroad.

Very few mourn Saddam Hussein, but Americans differ on whether Iraq actually posed a serious threat under his leadership. No meaningful evidence of weapons of mass destruction was ever found in Iraq, nor was Hussein implicated in the attacks of September 11. However, he was a brutal and dangerous leader, and military officials do report that al Qaeda groups are fighting in Iraq now.

Osama bin Laden, the al Qaeda leader behind 9/11, remains at large. Most experts believe he is hiding in the mountainous region between Afghanistan and Pakistan, but they are divided over the degree to which bin Laden still plans and directs terrorist activity. Some believe al Qaeda is now mainly made up of small groups inspired by bin Laden that plot their own attacks. Counterterrorism experts worry a lot about these independent groups who are difficult to spot, and it's hard to tell whether they're serious or just blowhards.

The U.S., fighting with NATO allies, ousted the Taliban from power in Afghanistan in 2001, and a more moderate government took over there. But the Pentagon reports that the Taliban is now a "resilient insurgency" in Afghanistan and that security is "fragile." In May and June 2008, more coalition troops died in Afghanistan than in Iraq.

There is mixed progress in the effort to control the spread of nuclear weapons. Iran is suspected of trying to develop them, although it says it is only working on a peaceful nuclear power program. Iran has not complied with U.N. resolutions to stop enriching uranium, and has threatened retaliation against Israel and U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf if its nuclear facilities are attacked.

North Korea has agreed to provide details on its nuclear program and shut down reactors in return for aid and removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. One major dilemma for U.S. foreign policy is the degree to which negotiating with so-called "rogue" nations like Iran and North Korea is helpful or whether tougher actions are needed.

In the past, foreign policy revolved mainly around peace and war, diplomacy, and keeping the U.S. safe from attack. But now there are many other issues that are, in fact, foreign policy issues. These include climate change, energy, trade and jobs, drug trafficking, illegal immigration, the spread of diseases like avian flu, and food safety issues.

Whether Americans are safe from these dangers and problems depends, in many respects, on whether other countries cooperate with us. Most Americans see energy as the most pressing of these issues – which is no surprise, given what’s happened with gas prices this year. Over half say they "worry a lot" that "problems abroad" could hurt our energy supply and/or drive up costs.

Since the U.S. imports about half of its oil – and since nearly every vehicle in the country runs on some form of it -- there is plenty to worry about. Some of our major suppliers of oil, like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria, are either in unstable regions, have internal problems that could cut off supplies, or have governments that are hostile to us. In the past, oil-producing countries have embargoed shipments to the U.S. because of political disputes.

Climate change, or global warming, is another problem that can’t be solved without international cooperation. Most world leaders accept that global warming is real, but the problem is how tough to be in addressing it.

Environmentalists say we need to set worldwide mandatory targets for reducing greenhouse gases, but the U.S. government has balked at this because of concerns about how fair these agreements are and what their impact will be on the U.S. economy. The U.S. and Europe are responsible for most of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, but countries like China and India are becoming major world polluters and their economies are growing fast.

How do we know all this? Here are our sources:

Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Costs of U.S. Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and of Other Activities Related to the War on Terrorism and Analysis of the Growth in Funding for Operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Elsewhere in the War on Terrorism; U.S. Government Accountability Office, Securing, Stabilizing and Rebuilding Iraq, June 2008 and Combating Terrorism: U.S. Efforts to Address the Terrorist Threat in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas Require a Comprehensive Plan and Continued Oversight, May 2008; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers; Brookings Institution, Iraq Index: Tracking Reconstruction and Security in Post-Saddam Iraq; Council on Foreign Relations, Backgrounders on al Qaeda, and The Taliban in Afghanistan; Public Agenda, Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, Spring 2008

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