The 'Don't Know' Factor

President Obama tried to send a signal to the Muslim world as he gave his first post-inaugural television interview to an Arab news network, saying "Americans are not your enemy." There's a lot of evidence that America's image in the Muslim world has gone downhill. But what about how Americans view Muslims?

The fact is that most Americans admit they know little or nothing about Islam. And that means a lot of survey data on this issue is inherently unstable.

There's a lot of survey work that shows Americans worried about relations with the Muslim world. Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) say only a small minority of Muslims support terrorism, according to Public Agenda's Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index. Yet eight in ten Americans worry about the "rise of Muslim extremism in the world" (and 38 percent worry "a lot"). Seven in ten worry about growing hatred of the United States in the Islamic world (one-third worry "a lot"). Six in ten think improved dialogue with the Muslim world can reduce hatred of the United States, and most Americans give the government poor grades on this front.

Despite the public's concerns, however, knowledge levels haven't changed at all since 9/11. In August 2007, nearly six in ten told the Pew Research Center that they know "not much" or "nothing at all" about the Muslim religion. That finding is essentially unchanged from another survey in November 2001. A quarter of the public consistently says they know "nothing at all" about Islam.

It's also important to note that many specific survey questions about the Muslim religion have significant "don't know" responses. For example, fully 32 percent told Newsweek in July 2007 that they didn't know whether or not the Koran condones violence. Nineteen percent said they did not know whether or not the Muslim culture glorifies suicide. In our own Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, the public was divided on whether Islam is more likely to encourage violence than other faiths (41 percent say yes, 42 percent say no). But a substantial 16 percent said they didn't know.

Given the high levels of "don't knows" it's hard to tell whether survey results represent firm attitudes or easily shifted "top-of-the-head" opinions. It's also worth pointing out that people are often reluctant to admit to admit they don't know something in a survey. So when people say they don't know something, that should be taken seriously.

This means that despite everything that's been said and written about U.S. relations with the Muslim world over the past few years, the public is still at a very early stage of the "learning curve" on these questions. The public is still catching up with policymakers here, and leaders should factor that into their approach, and not take surveys at face value.