Five Things Voters Should Know About Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

The series of political "High Noon" moments known as the presidential debates which kick off in Mississippi Friday night are to begin with a focus on foreign policy. And right after the debate, there will be a blizzard of polling about which candidate "won" and why. But I'm pretty sure that polling will focus on what people thought about Barack Obama and John McCain – and not on what they thought about foreign policy and America's role in the world.

That's a shame, because the gap between leaders and the public on foreign policy is as wide as on any issue Public Agenda covers. It's all too common for policymakers to frame issues in very different terms than average citizens, but when it comes to international relations, the differences can be really significant. It's certainly true that the economy is foremost in voters' minds. But the United States is still involved in two wars and facing a range of complicated international problems, from trade to climate change. Any foreign policy that's going to succeed needs to be rooted in the public's real concerns and values.

Public Agenda's been following attitudes on foreign policy since 2005 with our Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index. Over time, we've seen some changes, but we've also seen some remarkable consistency in what the public believes and values. So here are five big-picture points about foreign policy and public opinion to keep in mind as you watch the debates:

• Unlike domestic policy, the public is usually willing to leave foreign affairs to the professionals – unless they think things are seriously off track. The public doesn't know as much about foreign policy as about domestic affairs, and they're willing to admit it. (If you're trying to get up to speed yourself, our Voter's Survival Kit is a great place to start.) So they generally trust and support our leaders on international affairs, unless they believe things are going wrong.
  
  The problem for the candidates is that for the past several years the public has been anxious about foreign policy, and doubtful about the government's word. Since we started asking the question in 2006, a majority have consistently said U.S. foreign policy is off on the wrong track (65 percent in March). Three-quarters said the world is becoming a more dangerous place for Americans (38 percent said "much more dangerous"). And there's an established skepticism about the government in this area. Since we began the index in 2005, more than half have said they trust the government "not much" or "not at all" to tell them the truth about foreign affairs.



• The public has its own views on what makes us secure, and it's mostly about things the U.S. can control at home. When we ask about different strategies to enhance national security, three options have consistently risen to the top: better intelligence gathering, becoming less dependent on foreign energy, and tighter controls on immigration. The relative position of these items shifts, but it's always the same three on top.
  
  The one common denominator in these strategies is that they're all things people believe the United States can accomplish on its own. This isn't isolationism exactly – the public also strongly endorses diplomacy and international cooperation in many specific areas. But it does suggest a focus on policies that the public believes the U.S. can implement on its own.



• They know we have a poor image abroad, and they think it matters. Six in 10 say the U.S. is viewed negatively by the rest of the world, and just as many say it's very important to our national security to have a positive image.



• They don't want to be the world's policeman, but they wouldn't mind being the world's firefighter, moving in with humanitarian aid in a crisis. .The public has become much more reluctant about the use of force, with seven in 10 saying we should emphasize diplomatic and economic methods over the military in fighting terrorism. But the public would actually make humanitarian aid a much higher priority. About three-quarters say disaster relief, the environment and clean water supplies are “very important” priorities, on a par with traditional policy goals like nuclear nonproliferation.
  
  This strong public support for making disaster relief a priority first cropped up in our survey shortly after the Indonesian tsunami, and we thought it might fade over time. But it hasn't. This is a classic example of the public setting priorities that are very different than the experts and I'll be much surprised if John McCain or Barack Obama makes a major point of this Friday night.



• Worry about the economy can spill over into foreign policy. Multiple polls from many organizations show that Iraq is still a huge issue for the public, but has become relatively less important because of concern about the economy. This was true even in the March edition of our Foreign Policy Index, when the economic situation wasn't nearly as dramatic as it has been in the last couple of weeks.
  
  There was an across-the-board increase in concern about economic issues, even in the context of foreign policy. For the first time, the number who worried "a lot" about the price of gas (70 percent) outpaced worry about casualties in Iraq (56 percent). There was an eight-point increase, for example, in those who worry "a lot" about American jobs moving overseas, and a nine-point increase in those who worry "a lot" about the U.S. owing too much money to other countries.

Chances are the post-debate coverage in the media is going to be pretty tactical: who flubbed, who looked "presidential," who stayed "on message" and which demographic groups that message will resonate with. But that doesn't take into account these big-picture attitudes that are going to shape how the public views the debate and weighs the two candidates as potential leaders on foreign policy. The public is bringing concerns and values to the table that the commentators and politicians may not fully appreciate – and that could make a big difference in what they decide on Election Day.