Could an Economic Downturn Be the Ticket to Health Care Reform?

By Jenny Choi on November 18, 2008

An analysis in the Los Angeles Times today posits what could prove to be a tipping point for the health care crisis: the current economic slump. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) announced his proposal last week for a universal health care package, and Senator Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.), a long-time proponent of expanded coverage, says he plans to advance his own universal health care plan next week. But how can we possibly be talking about expanding coverage at the same time that the government has a ballooning deficit?

Health care costs in the current economic climate have no doubt placed an enormous added strain on the uninsured and the newly unemployed, not to mention employers, health care providers and the government. But many believe that health care and the economy are inextricably linked -- that, in essence, health care is an economic problem. Last week, the New America Foundation released a report, "The Cost of Doing Nothing," which argues that waiting to reform the system, while costs continue to skyrocket, comes with a price. By their calculations, the "economic cost of failure," the billions of dollars in lost productivity for those without coverage, is actually less cost-effective than covering every American.

Americans, on the whole, agree that our current health care system has major flaws and is in need of change, but the degree of reform is less unanimous. Public support for a universal health care plan varies based on survey question wording. Two-thirds believe it is the federal government's responsibility to ensure that all American have health coverage, but they are less galvanized about requiring it by law. Still, the consensus is that lowering the cost of health care and extending it to more people are the most important issues for the president and Congress to deal with.

More on public attitudes about various health care issues can be found in our red flags section, and be sure to visit the health care guide in our Citizen's Survival Kit for the bigger picture: key facts and statistics, plus a discussion guide that offers three approaches to the problem, with pros, cons and specific strategies for each.

"Whether those provisions will be included in the Senate's plan may not be known for several weeks. But the provisions in the House bill suggest that instead of crowding health care reform off the agenda, the economic crisis could increase its chances.

""Health care reform will rise or fall on whether it gets on the economic-recovery train,"" said Drew Altman, president and chief executive of the Kaiser Family Foundation, a health policy research organization.

The House's approval of the two-year plan overshadowed the Senate's passing its version last week of legislation that would increase funding for the health program that provides coverage for children and, in some states including Wisconsin, parents who are not eligible for Medicaid and cannot afford private insurance.

In normal times, that in itself would mark a landmark victory for advocates of expanding coverage. But last week showed that the economic crisis has created a political climate unlike any seen in generations.

Still, Giaimo, Altman and others are quick to note that the obstacles to health care reform remain formidable.

Because of its size, complexity and fragmentation, the U.S. health care system simply isn't conducive to sweeping reforms. The United States is projected to spend more than $2.5 trillion this year on health care - an amount, as one policy analyst has noted, roughly the size of France's economy.

The partisan split over the House plan - not a single Republican voted for it - also doesn't bode well for future compromises on health care reform. For that reason, even those who are optimistic about the chances for health care reform can be pessimistic.

""Just because the time is right doesn't mean it is actually going to happen,"" said Giaimo, author of ""Markets and Medicine: the Politics of Health Care Reform in Britain, Germany, and the United States.""vi da nam"

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