Cash and Clunkers, Carrots and Sticks

The federal government is making major efforts to change the way Americans drive, and Public Agenda's Energy Learning Curve™ suggests that the public's ready for change – but reluctant to be pushed.

A lot of the energy debate seems to boil down to whether you prefer carrots or sticks, and it’s a good sign that the government's first attempt, the $1 billion "cash for clunkers" program, was so popular that it essentially sold out of carrots the first week. If you're looking at the long term, President Obama announced today that the government would put $2.4 billion in grants behind developing better batteries that would make electric vehicles more practical.

Driving isn't the whole story on America's energy problems, but it’s a big part of it. The U.S. imports about 60 percent of the oil it needs, almost all of which goes to transportation. And vehicle emissions are a major source of greenhouse gases.

The Energy Learning Curve shows that the public's willing to reconsider its driving habits. In fact, when we conducted the survey in January we found that two-thirds said they'd cut back significantly on how much they drove in the previous six months. Fully one-third said they'd considered getting a hybrid or a more fuel-efficient car. Nearly three-quarters said they supported giving a tax credit to people buying fuel-efficient cars, so the cash-for-clunkers idea was on fertile territory.

But there's a question of whether carrots will be enough. Some doubt whether the cash-for-clunkers program will be all that effective in reducing dependence on foreign oil or as a cost-effective way of reducing greenhouse gases. Of course, the program is a boon to the nation's troubled auto dealers, although many of the high-mileage and hybrid cars benefiting from the program are foreign-made.

And while electric cars could make a big difference, they're going to be more expensive than comparable conventional cars and it'll probably take years for them to gain a significant share of the market. A lot is going to depend on the price of gas. The higher it is, the better electric cars will look to consumers.

Yet at this point, there isn't much support for moving from carrots to sticks. In fact, anything that increases the cost of driving met firm resistance in Public Agenda's research. Majorities reject setting a "floor" under gas prices (71 percent), congestion pricing (61 percent) or a gas tax, regardless if that was used to improve roads (61 percent), achieve energy independence (57 percent) or develop clean renewable energy (53 percent).

Policymakers do have one big asset in public attitudes, however: the public believes the energy problem won't go away soon. Three quarters reject the idea that if gas prices fall, we don't need to worry about finding alternative energy sources. That's important, because energy policy is a long-term question. It's going to take years, probably decades, to make significant changes. Public support has to be built up and sustained over the long haul, and people are still learning about the tradeoffs that will be needed.