The Public's Foreign Policy

From the San Diego Union-Tribune

By Daniel Yankelovich

The many behind-the-scenes changes taking place in our foreign policy suggest that the Bush administration may be playing catch-up with public opinion. Most of the time the public's views do not carry much weight in foreign policy circles. Ordinarily, the public will follow the president's lead, trusting that he and his advisers know what they're doing.

But when public frustration reaches a tipping point, as it now has, the public starts to develop its own foreign policy – largely in opposition to existing policy. At that point, public opinion counts a great deal and can no longer be ignored. This is one of those times. High levels of public concern and strong, intensely held convictions have combined to give the public's point of view on foreign policy exceptional force.

This dynamic is clearly at work in the Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, a twice-a-year survey conducted by Public Agenda, a public interest organization I founded more than 30 years ago. Drawing on its major findings, we can see the outlines of what can best be described as the public's foreign policy:

Withdraw from Iraq without seeking “victory.” A majority of the public has concluded that our safety from terrorism does not depend on success in Iraq (60 percent) and that our troops should leave (51 percent say within the next year; 19 percent immediately). Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) “worries a lot” that the war in Iraq is leading to too many casualties.

Rely more on diplomacy than on military force (and only use force with strong support from allies). Seven out of 10 Americans (70 percent) say the United States is “too quick to go to war” and doesn't put enough emphasis on diplomacy and economic efforts (67 percent).

Improve our reputation (and credibility) with the rest of the world. Overwhelming majorities (91 percent) say our global image is important to national security and that the rest of the world sees us in a negative light (68 percent). The public believes our actions in the Middle East are actually aiding the recruitment of terrorists (77 percent) even though Americans also believe that only a small minority of Muslims supports terrorism (71 percent).

Stop trying to impose democracy on other nations. Three-quarters say democracy is something that nations must come to on their own (74 percent) and that exporting democracy should not be a major goal of our foreign policy.

Give top priority to preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Seventy-five percent want preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to be a very important policy priority, ahead of any other in the survey.

Exercise leadership in international cooperation to reduce global warming, control diseases and promote environmental sustainability. Strong majorities (72 percent) want to see cooperating with other countries on problems such as the environment and disease become important objectives of our foreign policy. A substantial majority (65 percent) thinks it's realistic to look to international cooperation to reduce global warming.

Actively seek energy independence to enhance our national security. A near consensus of the public (85 percent) believes the government can and should make us less dependent on foreign energy to enhance our national security.

In a recent opinion piece, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger faults the administration's critics for wanting an “immaculate diplomacy” without strong military backing. Kissinger and other leaders have steadfastly held that military force is indispensable to diplomacy. He blames faith in diplomacy without military force for the “prolonged deadlock” that followed the wars in Korea and Vietnam.

What Kissinger is lamenting is an inevitable outcome of the public's loss of confidence in the Bush administration's strategy. The administration has badly damaged its credibility with the public by the clumsy and lopsided way it has deployed military force, with the result that the public now wants more diplomacy and less military force.